The central estimate of the latest 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 is 1.44°C
The year 2024 was the hottest year on record. Now, there’s a probability of 80% that one of the next five years will exceed 2024 to be the hottest, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900, according to the report. This means that there will be increased climate risks, adversely affecting people and economies.
The report also stated that there is a 70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 °C.
The Arctic region will continue to heat up faster than the rest of the planet, which means more ice sheets will melt, leading to sea level rise, while rainfall patterns are showing big variations spread across different regions.
Global warming
The Paris Agreement had set two thresholds for global warming — 1.5°C and 2.0°C — in terms of long-term temperature rise, typically over 20 years. The report specified that long-term warming will remain below 1.5°C, but it is expected that temperatures will temporarily exceed this level over the next five years. In fact, the frequency of breaching the threshold will increase as average temperatures come close to the 1.5°C mark.
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” she said.
The report also featured the latest decadal climate forecast. It predicts that the central estimate of the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44°C.
Disproportionate burden
The warming in the Arctic region is especially troubling. Over the next five winters, spread out between the months of November to March, the report estimated that the region will warm at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020). In other words, Arctic warming is predicted to be more than three-and-a-half times the global average.
Furthermore, the report predicted that there will be an increased reduction in sea-ice concentrations in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk in the next five years. While the Amazon region is expected to have more dry conditions, the northern part of the globe — including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia — will experience wetter conditions.
South Asia, too, will experience higher precipitation than average over the next five years, found the report.
“This report highlights a very well-known process threatening life on Earth: countries continue to burn fossil fuels, carbon emissions continue to build up in the atmosphere, and global temperatures continue to rise. We’ve already hit a dangerous level of warming. Just last week, we saw deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada, and near 50°C heat in Pakistan. With every fraction of a degree of warming, we’ll see more dangerous extreme weather than before,” said Dr. Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the Imperial College in London.
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