What does Trump’s win mean for climate change

If the US pulls out of the Paris Agreement along with other climate commitments, the mantle for climate leadership could go to China

As Donald Trump prepares to step into his second term as President of the United States of America, climate change advocates across the world are wary. 

The world is anyway short of containing rising temperatures to 1.5 C by the end of the century. Having Trump in the White House means the US – the world’s second highest emitter – might make this situation worse, as there’s a likelihood that the US might not work proactively in reducing emissions.

In fact, the 78-year-old has threatened to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, do away with electric vehicle policies aimed at reducing emissions, while ramping up oil drilling even in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. 

If he does follow up on these claims, what will it mean for the climate change movement now that Trump is back?

Climate action will not stop

The last time he was in office, Trump left the Paris Agreement, rolled back 100 environmental regulations and opened up more land for oil and gas leasing by weakening the environmental requirements for fossil fuel projects. 

This time too, he wooed voters by proclaiming that he would “drill baby drill” to promote the expansion of oil and gas plants.

“The result from this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action, but it cannot and will not halt the changes underway to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement,” said Christiana Figueres, Former Executive Director, UNFCCC.

“Standing with oil and gas is the same as falling behind in a fast moving world. Clean energy technologies will continue to outcompete fossil fuels, not just because they are healthier, faster, cleaner and more abundant, but because they undercut fossil fuels where they are at their weakest: their unsolvable volatility and inefficiency,” she added.

Other doors opening

If the US backtracks on its climate pledges, the mantle for climate leadership could easily go to China, which is inarguably, far ahead of any other country in terms of renewable energy, batteries, and other cleantech manufacturing. 

Parallely, if Trump repeals the Inflation Reduction Act, then businesses, jobs and the economic growth that it was fuelling would pass on other countries. Big economies like the EU, India, and Brazil will benefit more from this. 

On the other hand, other economies plan to pursue their own climate agendas, even if the US does the opposite. At the international level, many countries have confirmed they will continue climate action.

For India, the resulting impacts will be a mixed bag. Funds from climate finance may dry up, while investments into clean energy projects in India might shoot up. 

“The US election results will have major implications for the pace of the world’s transition to clean energy and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change. there could be disruptions in supply chains and unsatisfactory climate finance flow,” said Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). 

“The challenge for the rest of the world is to move on and keep deepening action  and not be distracted by the theatrics of a climate denier leading the USA. If Trump follows through with his threat to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the biggest loser will be the United States provided the Parties to the Agreement stick together,” he said.

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