Afghanistan to be the most affected by rising temperatures in South Asia: Study

A new study looks at the rate of warming in South Asia as a result of global warming increasing by 1.5°C , 2°C and 3°C, compared to the pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900

A new study found that Afghanistan is going to be the most affected country due to rising temperatures in South Asia and Bangladesh the least. The study looked at the rate South Asia would be warming if global warming were to increase by 1.5°C , 2°C and 3°C, compared to the pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900. Afghanistan is followed by Pakistan and by the Himalayan countries i.e. Nepal and Bhutan.

The study covered countries that are a part of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)— including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. 

According to the study, South Asia would observe a mean temperature rise of 1.5°C and 3°C during 2035–2038 and 2062–2068, respectively. The study also found that the period of January–April is expected to be affected the most, followed by September–December, and lastly, by May–August. 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides tools for analysing mean near-surface air temperature data using CMIP6 (global climate model) and CORDEX-SA (regional climate model). The study used both projection models to better understand climate change in the region. While CMIP6 provided a coherent overall picture of South Asia, CORDEX-SA projected the average temperature variations of Indian states better. 

Impact on India

The study said that Meghalaya in the northeast and Himachal Pradesh in the north are experiencing ice melt in the Himalayas as a result of rising mean temperatures. Punjab in the north is also seeing rising mean temperatures as a result of climate change in adjacent Pakistan. Rising sea levels as a result of mean temperature increases in eastern West Bengal are causing land to sever and submerge. 

According to the study, Himalayan states from north to north-east are going to be most affected by average temperature rise in India. These states are followed by northwestern and western states along the Pakistan border; western coastline along the Arabian Sea; southern states along the eastern coastline (Bay of Bengal); central and eastern states. 

However, overall, both models projected the temperature rise in the state of West Bengal to be the highest in the coming decades. A global warming of 3°C could lead to a mean temperature rise of 4.432°C  in the state, the study said. 

The study found that CMIP6 1.5°C model isolated Ladakh as the most affected state due to temperature rise, while all other model variations of CMIP6 and CORDEX-SA projected West Bengal are the most affected. 

Interestingly, the study found that while CMIP6 and CORDEX-SA models project a high temperature rise in the Indian state of West Bengal, they also project Bangladesh to be one of the least affected countries due to the rising temperature. This is surprising because West Bengal and Bangladesh (erstwhile East Bengal) are neighbouring regions. The study said that these observations could inform climate policy making in India and the SAARC countries.

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