At Bonn, Climate Commitments Face Test as Energy Security Takes Priority

“We don’t  have time  to re-open past debates or renegotiate commitments already made,” said Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, during his opening remarks at UN June Climate Meetings at Bonn, Germany. In the midst of an energy crisis sparked by the war in West Asia, and an impending Super El Nino, the urgency in Stiell’s words cannot be dismissed.

The 64th Session of the Subsidiary Bodies of the UNFCCC (SB 64), the conference at Bonn is expected to drive progress on matters like adaptation, the transition away from fossil fuels, trade and just transition. Clarity is also expected on how the $1.3 trillion climate finance goal will be implemented. Countries are also expected to discuss the implementation pathways of policies achieved under the first Global Stocktake.

For India and the broader Global South, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), just transition, and pushing for better and public climate finance, are important, according to experts. In their opening remarks on Day 1, most developing nations also urged negotiators to uphold the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), something that has lost value in recent climate negotiations. 

“As Bonn sessions are technical in nature, the most important outcomes relate to consensus on key issues that can translate into political decisions at COP. Currently, these relate to the Global Goal on Adaptation and climate finance for India,” said Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, CEEW.

Indeed, adaptation is a priority for India. “India is concerned by declining levels of climate finance, including replenishment and support, and the growing adaptation finance gap,” said India during the opening plenary session.

Derailed climate commitments

The current geopolitical atmosphere has not been very conducive for progressing on international climate goals. In fact, with countries spending more on defence, priorities are shifting.

“Climate mitigation seems to have been lost with some developed countries withdrawing from climate commitments, financing and action,” said Dhruba Purkayastha, a sustainable development and climate finance expert based in Delhi. 

“While renewable energy and energy transition may be the heart of COP actions, the current geopolitical situation has shifted focus on energy security through fossil fuels instead of energy transition. I would like to see energy transition back on track,” he said.

Also, there is a distinct probability that the developed world, led by the EU delegation, will emphasise on the transition away from fossil fuels. “I am sure that the developed world will focus on its fossil fuel roadmap agenda, and if this happens, India will need to tide over this diversion and ensure that talks focus on issues that are more relevant for the developing Global South,” said Chaturvedi.

While necessary in the long run, immediate transitions pose a host of problems for developing economies like India, which are heavily dependent on fossil fuel sources like coal, for growth.

Developing countries, which face the bigger brunt of a changing climate, are facing massive constraints of fiscal space to transition, said Avantika Goswami, Program Manager, Climate Change and Green Economy, CSE, during a panel held by Climate Action Network (CAN).

“Lack of finance, technology and capacity showcases we have a long way to go. We are in mid-transition. From the multi-lateral perspective, India and other developing countries have submitted NDCs and the EU shows commitment to climate multilateralism. But the objectives reached at Santa Marta should not supersede the official process of UNFCCC,” she said.

Goswami was referring to the First International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels (the Santa Marta Conference) held from April 24–29 in Colombia. An unofficial conference, 57 countries converged there to discuss actionable pathways to transition away from fossil fuels. Consensus was reached on developing time-bound national roadmaps to transition away from coal, oil, and gas by the ‘coalition of the willing’.

While this issue is expected to headline across the Bonn conference, progress on other issues are desirable.

“India believes that the international climate agenda must now focus on implementation. Equity and historical responsibility must continue to guide this phase. Developing countries need adequate carbon space to eradicate poverty, expand energy access and meet their sustainable development goals,” said India during the opening plenary.

“I would expect  this session to clarify how NCQG of $300 billion as defined would translate to $1.3 trillion as stated in Baku to Belem Road Map. While adaptation may not be directly in the agenda, it is imperative that the adaptation and resilience finds a clearer funding and structure in terms of what will these funds be used for, usually called Loss and Damage Fund,” said Purkayastha. 

It is clear that the focus of the conference can swing in different directions. Defining clearer pathways at SB64 will ease pressure on COP31 to be held in Turkey later this year.