Children Born in 2020 Will Live Through Unusual Climate Extremes: Study

Study shows that unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves for children may rise to 92% if global warming reaches 3.5°C by 2100.

A new report by Nature revealed that 52% of children born in 2020 will experience unprecedented lifetime exposure (ULE) to heatwaves and other climate extremes, with low-income groups unevenly affected under a 1.5°C pathway. 

The report explained ULE as exposure so high that it had only a one in 10,000 chance of happening in a pre-industrial climate. The Brussels-based research also looked at other extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts. 

The study also projected that if global warming reaches 3.5°C by 2100, 92% of the children born in 2020 would face extreme heat waves (ULE). This means that 111 million children born in 2020 would face unprecedented heat wave exposure in a world warming to 3.5°C, compared to 62 million in a 1.5°C pathway.

Socio-economic vulnerabilities 

The study assessed the impact of extreme heat on socio-economically vulnerable people using the Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), which measures relative deprivation through indicators such as the child dependency ratio, infant mortality rates, and subnational Human Development Index scores. It found that the most deprived populations were more exposed to extreme heat events compared to the least deprived.

A similar disparity emerged when using GDP per capita as an indicator for vulnerability, with 92% alignment with the GRDI. This means an estimated 22 million children from low-income groups are facing unusually large exposures (ULE) to heatwaves. According to the study, this disproportionate impact stems from limited access to resources that could help shield them from extreme heat.

The research highlighted that disparity will continue to persist across different warming pathways (1.5°C or 3.5°C) among higher deprivation groups. 

Call for action

The study called for an urgent need for deep and sustained emissions reductions to lower the burden of climate change on younger generations. It finds that large fractions of the younger population are projected to live under unprecedented exposure to heatwaves, river floods, droughts, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones. 

Achieving the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C could allow millions of children born between 2003 and 2020 to avoid various extremes, compared to a 2.7°C or 3.5°C warming pathway under current policies, the study concluded. The move will avoid the exposure of  613 million to heatwaves, 98 million to crop failures, 64 million to river floods, 76 million to tropical cyclones, 26 million to droughts, and 17 million to wildfires, according to the study. 

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