China Secures Global Green Energy Dominance with $120 Billion Investment
This is in addition to a US$220 billion invested in downstream cleantech manufacturing, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, creating a vertically integrated global green industrial strategy
This massive investment in China has been spread over a wide spectrum of critical minerals such as lithium, rare earths, nickel, copper, high-grade iron ore, bauxite, precious metals and other materials
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A new report found that China has committed more than US$120bn in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) into resource mining and processing since 2023. This massive investment has been spread over a wide spectrum of critical minerals such as lithium, rare earths, nickel, copper, high-grade iron ore, bauxite, precious metals and other materials — critical inputs for emerging technologies like batteries, solar, wind, EVs and industrial decarbonisation.
Climate Energy Finance’s (CEF) report, titled ‘Raw Power: China locks-in global dominance of critical minerals and metals with $120bn outbound investment surge’, confirmed that the world’s decarbonisation leader has locked in dominance over the critical minerals and metals essential for the zero-emissions economy.
This is in addition to a US$220 billion invested in downstream cleantech manufacturing, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, creating a vertically integrated global green industrial strategy.
Moving ahead of the curve
The report outlined a strategic shift in Chinese diplomacy. Instead of pursuing the extractive model of the early Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese companies are now becoming partners of host nations in the Global South to build processing, infrastructure, and skilled employment in those respective countries.
By providing capital for refineries and ports in exchange for long-term offtake agreements, China is aligning its national security interests with the industrial goals of its partners.
“The race to net zero is not only a race for technological innovation, but also for minerals, metals, processing capacity, and industrial control. As the report finds, China’s outbound investment strategy has moved well beyond simple resource extraction towards a more integrated model linking resource acquisition with processing, infrastructure, manufacturing, and long-term industrial partnerships,” said Marina Yue Zhang, Associate Professor, Australia–China Relations Institute, at the University of Technology in Sydney.
“For resource-rich countries like Australia, the report’s policy implication is clear: the challenge is not blanket exclusion, but the development of clearer policy settings and national objectives so that foreign investment, including from China, can be assessed according to whether it supports domestic value-adding, industrial capability, and long-term national interests,” she added.
Dominance
Currently, China’s grip on the critical minerals supply chain is difficult to beat. The Asian giant has 90% of global rare earth refining capacity, 60% of lithium processing, over 90% of battery cathode and anode material production, 60% of global aluminum smelting and 54% of steelmaking, according to the report.
In Indonesia, Chinese investment has transformed the nation into the world’s top nickel producer. Similarly, the US$23 billion Simandou project in Guinea, backed by Chinese equity, delivered its first iron ore shipment in January 2026, threatening the historical market dominance of Australian and Brazilian suppliers.
“What this report documents is not merely investment flows, but the architecture of a new global green industrial order. China has built a vertically integrated green supply chain spanning every continent, combining state-directed capital with private enterprise execution at a speed and scale no competitor country comes close to matching. From Zimbabwe lithium projects to Indonesian nickel smelters to Guinea iron ore mining and infrastructure, China is systematically securing the resources that underpin the global zero-emissions economy as it derisks its strategic goals, consolidating its position as the world’s overwhelming decarbonisation leader,” said the report’s lead author and CEF director Tim Buckley.
“The Trump Administration's trade barriers, attacks on Iran and retreat from energy transition have ramped up rather than arrested this momentum. China's trajectory is one of adaptation and acceleration, not retreat. The West and other regions can either engage strategically with this reality or risk being locked out of the supply chains that will define twenty-first century industrial competitiveness, energy security and economic prosperity in a decarbonised world,” said Buckley.