Clean Energy Push Would Halve Warming Rate by 2040: Report 

Implementing the tripling of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency goals would significantly cut projected warming this century 

A new report found that tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency and cutting methane by 2030 could cut the global warming rate by a third within a decade and by half by 2040. The analysis released by Climate Action Tracker said that they could cut global emissions by 18 billion tonnes in 2035 compared to current emission projections. 

The analysis said if this action is continued, the government would put the world on track to lower projected 21st century warming by about 0.9˚C, from 2.6˚C to 1.7˚C.  This could be almost as much as the entire 1˚C improvement seen over the ten years since governments adopted the Paris Agreement and would be a massive step towards keeping the 1.5˚C limit in sight.

At COP28 in Dubai, 2023, as part of the first full assessment of government action since the Paris Agreement – the first Global Stocktake (GST) – governments negotiated and agreed on a clear set of 2030 energy goals to align with limiting warming to 1.5°C. These included tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements, and cutting methane emissions – referred to here as the COP28 Energy and Methane Goals, said the report.

Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist at Climate Analytics said, “Two years ago, governments promised to triple renewable energy, double efficiency and act on methane.  Our results show if they achieved this by 2035 it would be a gamechanger, quickly slowing the rate of warming in the next decade and lowering global warming this century from 2.6°C to about 1.7°C.” 

Tripling renewable energy within G20 would reduce emissions by 40% 

The analysis stated that tripling renewable energy within the G20 would account for roughly 40% of total emission reductions and expanding renewables is the backbone of the energy transition as it delivers dual benefits: displacing fossil fuels directly and powering electrification across sectors, which in turn drives greater energy efficiency.

Doubling energy efficiency would contribute another 40% of the G20’s total reductions. Electrification of industry, buildings and transport is key to achieving this goal, making up almost half of the improvements.

Methane mitigation would deliver a further 20%, providing rapid, near-term benefits.  These percentages would be roughly the same for the extrapolation at the global level. Although the methane reductions are just 20% of the total emission reductions the warming benefit is much greater, contributing up to half of the reduction in the warming rate – methane and CO₂ reductions work together to rapidly reduce the rate of warming.

Prof. Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute said, “This transition booster would lead to significantly less emissions in this century and therefore a much lower temperature increase. If governments were to implement what they already promised we could avert climate chaos, and ease the enormous pressure on adaptation.”

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