Climate change set to slow down nearly every 2026 World Cup match
Temperatures exceeding 28°C will directly affect how fast, far, and frequently athletes can run during a match
Rising heat threatens player performance in 97 of the 104 matches at 2026 World Cup.
Visual Credits: Wikimedia Commons
Rising temperatures due to global warming can put a dampener on the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup, set to begin on June 11. According to a new analysis by Climate Central, climate change is increasing the risk of slower games and reduced player performance at nearly every match.
The analysis found that climate change has increased the likelihood of heat that could slow players for 97 of the 104 matches, being hosted by Mexico, the United States and Canada. Parallely, the increased heat is a threat to game speed as well as fan safety.
Hot pitch
According to the analysis, temperatures exceeding 28°C mark a critical performance-impairing threshold for soccer players. Above this limit, heat directly affects how fast, far, and frequently athletes can run during a match. This physiological strain can alter an entire team’s match strategy and style of play. Consequently, teams that rely heavily on speed and repeated sprinting could find themselves at a distinct disadvantage, making it significantly harder for players to reach their peak physical output.
By comparing the current carbon-polluted world to a hypothetical world without carbon pollution, the study quantified the direct influence of climate change. It found that nearly half of all matches carry at least a 50% likelihood of experiencing these disruptive temperatures. In 26 of those specific matches, climate change has elevated the risk by at least 10%.
The worst impacted game can be the one between Uruguay and Spain, to be held in the Mexican city of Guadalajara on June 26. Climate change has increased the odds of performance-impairing heat by 37%. There’s also a 70% chance of extreme heat, according to the analysis .
The final, to be held on July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium, faces a 47% likelihood of performance-impairing heat.
“This analysis makes clear that rising temperatures are not only a serious health risk for players and fans, but they are also starting to affect the quality of the game itself. When heat impacts sprinting, recovery, and overall intensity, it changes the way football is played — and not for the better. That’s exactly why I signed the players’ letter to FIFA last week. We need to take these risks seriously and ensure that the game we love is protected, both for those on the pitch and everyone watching around the world,” said Morten Thorsby, who’s a member of the Norwegian World Cup squad.
Crisis for venues
Another Climate Central analysis found that extremely hot June and July days are on the rise at 14 of the 16 World Cup venues. Beyond hindering athleticism, extreme heat combined with high humidity poses serious health risks, including heat stress.
As 13 of the 16 stadiums are open-air venues, it will leave millions of fans and players exposed to peak summer weather. Only the stadiums in Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston are fully climate-controlled. To protect participants, FIFA is scheduling more evening matches in hotter host cities and introducing mandatory hydration breaks for all 104 games. Additionally, matches may be postponed entirely if the wet-bulb globe temperature reaches 32°C.
“The World Cups of the past won't happen again — not because the players have changed, but because the planet has. Heatwaves, unpredictable weather, and shifting seasons are rewriting the rules of the games we love. Athletes are forced to play more cautiously, strategise differently, and abandon the risks that once made sport thrilling. Unless we stop burning fossil fuels, the future of competition won’t be about who plays best — it’ll be about who can tolerate the heat,” said Shel Winkely, meteorologist at Climate Central.