Climate Change Triggers Surge in Food Prices Globally: Report 

The research finds that climate change-induced food price shocks can exacerbate a range of health outcomes.

Weather extremes are driving a surge in food prices among foods like British potatoes, Californian vegetables, South African maize, and Indian onions. The study, led by Maximillian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, investigated 16 examples ​​across 18 countries over a two-year period (2022-2024).

The study showed that the price spikes were associated with extreme heat, drought, or heavy precipitation events, many of which were so extreme they exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020.

Price Spikes Across the Globe

The report showed that in India, onion prices rose by over 80% in Q2 2024 after an intense May heatwave—made at least 1.5°C hotter by climate change. In Ethiopia, food prices were 40% higher in March 2023 following the 2022 drought in the Horn of Africa, the worst in 40 years. 

In Spain and Italy, the 2022-2023 drought in southern Europe drove an increase in the price of olive oil of 50% year-on-year across the EU by January 2024, on top of price increases the previous year. Spain produces over two-fifths of the world’s olive oil.

Brazilian coffee, South Korean cabbage, and Japanese rice were also among the foods that were hit by price hikes following extreme climate events since 2022, the report found. 

Cocoa prices were almost 300% in April 2024 following the heatwave in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together accounted for nearly two-thirds of the global cocoa production.

Healthier the food, higher the price 

The research also found that on average, healthy food was twice as expensive per calorie as less healthy food. When prices increase, low-income households are likely to cut back on nutritious foods like fruit and vegetables because they can’t afford them.

The study concluded that climate change-induced food price shocks could therefore exacerbate a range of health outcomes, from malnutrition (not getting enough nutrients, which is a particular concern for children whose nutritional needs are higher) to a range of chronic diet-related conditions including coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and many cancers. 

Maximillian Kotz, Marie-Curie post-doctoral fellow at the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and lead author of the study, said, “Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, and it’s already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world.” 

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