Coffee supply in Global South hit due to rising temperatures: Report
Top 5 coffee growing countries experienced 57 additional days of coffee-harming temperatures
2.2 billion cups of coffee are consumed every day globally. Photo: Pixabay
Coffee, one of the most loved beverages across the world, is now in the crosshairs of climate change. Rising temperatures are harmful for coffee production, and climate change is increasing the number of days with coffee-harming temperatures, found a new report by Climate Central.
According to the report, the top five coffee-producing countries — Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia — each experienced 57 extra days of harmful heat per year due to climate change, on average between 2021-2025. Combined, these countries produce 75% of the world’s coffee.
The growing pressure on coffee production will have a spillover effect on food habits across the world, as coffee is one of the most consumed items, with 2.2 billion cups consumed every day.
Already, coffee prices are rising. According to a World Bank report, Arabica and Robusta Coffee bean prices have almost doubled from 2023 to 2025.
Problems of rising heat
The report analysed 25 coffee-growing countries, representing 97% of global production. It found that on average, each country experienced 47 additional days per year with temperatures harmful to coffee plants that would not have occurred without fossil fuel pollution.
The analysis was based on observing temperatures from 2021 to 2025, and then comparing them to a hypothetical world without carbon pollution using the Climate Shift Index.
The threshold where temperature becomes harmful for coffee is 30°C. The analysis looked for the number of days that the regions had temperatures above this threshold. When temperatures rise above this threshold, coffee plants experience heat stress that can reduce yield, affect bean quality, and increase the vulnerability of plants to disease. Together, these impacts can reduce the supply and quality of coffee and contribute to higher prices globally.
“At Mooleh Manay (coffee estate), climate change is something we measure on our farm every day. Our on-ground sensors show longer hot periods, warmer nights, and faster soil moisture loss, all of which place increasing stress on coffee plants and soils. Coffee depends on a narrow balance of shade, moisture, and cool recovery time. As that balance shrinks, adapting through better soil health and climate-resilient farming is no longer a choice,” said Akshay Dashrath, co-founder and grower, South India Coffee Company in India.
The report found that smaller harvests and higher prices hit smallholder farmers the hardest. Smallholder farmers account for about 80% of global producers and about 60% of global supply, but received just 0.36% of the financing needed to adapt to the impacts of climate change in 2021.
“Coffee farmers in Ethiopia are already seeing the impact of extreme heat. Ethiopian Arabica is particularly sensitive to direct sunlight. Without sufficient shade, coffee trees produce fewer beans and become more vulnerable to disease. To safeguard coffee supplies, governments need to act on climate change. They must also work with, and invest in, smallholder coffee farmers and their organisations so we can scale up the solutions we need to adapt,” said Dejene Dadi, general manager of Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union (OCFCU), a smallholder cooperative that is one of the largest coffee producers and exporters in Ethiopia.