COP30 ends in chaos and compromise

A dramatic finish in Belém delivers partial wins on forests, energy and a just transition — but leaves major questions on climate finance unresolved

What was meant to be a smooth closing act at COP30 in Belém briefly spiralled into chaos. Objections from countries like Colombia, Uruguay and Panama — who argued that their concerns were sidelined by the Brazilian Presidency — forced the suspension of the final plenary for nearly an hour. When the gavel finally came down, the summit ended not with a sweeping breakthrough, but with a carefully stitched-together package of compromises.

Among them were the launch of the ‘Global Implementation Accelerator’ — a two-year programme jointly led by COP30 and COP31 presidencies to mitigate the gap between the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of countries and the threshold point needed to cap global warming at 1.5°C. So far, 118 countries have submitted NDCs. India is expected to submit its NDC next month.

The ‘Accelerator’ also includes agreements to transition away from fossil fuels, a key outcome of COP28. The presidency separately announced a roadmap for this outcome, while another one was announced to halt and reverse deforestation.

On the issue of finance, a hotly contested topic at this COP, developed countries agreed to the tripling of adaptation finance by 2035. As part of the $300 billion NCQG adopted at COP29, around $120 billion would be earmarked for adaptation work in developing countries. 

Finance and forests

Even though there was serious opposition from the developed world on agreeing to a delivery mechanism for finance, parties agreed to a two-year work programme for climate finance delivery, including the $300 billion. 

Parallely, $300 million was pledged for the Belém Health Action Plan for helping the health sector better acclimatise to the vagaries of climate change.

A major win for the Global South was the agreement to a Just Transition Mechanism. “A just transition mechanism win for civil society and developing countries contrasts with a vague adaptation finance outcome. Moreover, wealthy countries’ obstruction has exposed a legitimacy crisis in the COP process — who does it serve and is it fit for purpose,” said Avantika Goswami, Programme Manager, Climate Change, CSE.

She added that the goal of tripling adaptation finance remains vague with no specific accountability of contributors, and the work programme on Article 9 could provide a critical space for developing countries to scrutinize finance flows. “New dialogues on trade measures can elevate the issue of unilateral measures like EU CBAM within the COP process. Beyond talk shops however, this COP has delivered little else,” she said.

According to Jiwoh Abdulai, the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Sierra Leone, this COP30 has not delivered everything Africa asked for, but it has moved the needle. “There is clearer recognition that those with historical responsibility have specific duties on climate finance, and public finance remains at the core of adaptation, not an afterthought to private capital. We have made progress on just transition and on technology and capacity, but not yet at the scale that science and justice demand. For Sierra Leone this is a floor, not a ceiling. We will judge this outcome by how quickly these words turn into real projects that protect lives and livelihoods,” he said.

A definitive win at this COP was the pledging of $6.5 billion to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility — a fund started to avoid deforestation, and invest in reforestation. Around 90 countries have also supported the call for a global deforestation roadmap. 

“Climate negotiations risked being disconnected from climate reality and the action that is already happening. At COP30 in Brazil, the real world finally came back into the room. In a year where climate multilateralism has been challenged, getting a good deal was better than failing to get any deal in pursuit of the best deal. The simple truth is that the world is not binary. Real transitions happen amid complex and hard development choices,” said Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW, and Special Envoy to COP30 representing South Asia.

Energy, land and and human rights

On the energy front, around $1 trillion was committed by 2030 to expand power grids, energy storage, and more investments in the energy transition, while $590 million was mobilised for methane-reduction efforts. Parallely, already around $140 billion has been invested in renewable projects under development, out of which a third is in developing countries. 

As Brazil had taken this opportunity to voice the concerns of indigenous communities fighting for protecting the Amazon, some processes were developed to help them. Around $1.8 billion was committed through direct and indirect funding for them, while the host country also advanced the Indigenous Land recognition, and got 10 of them formally declared. 

Globally, an Intergovernmental Land Tenure Commitment was launched by 15 governments, securing and strengthening the land rights of indigenous peoples across 160 million hectares—an area roughly the size of Mongolia.

“We’ve just witnessed forest and Indigenous rights being catapulted from the margins, to the epicentre of climate talks. From the three tropical forest basins, to the furthest corners of Europe, leaders have come behind a new centre of gravity for Nature finance – the TFFF and the Earth Investment Engine. Forest countries have been asking for years to be consistently compensated for protecting ecosystems that provide climate, food and water security to all of us around the world. This COP has answered those calls,” said Marcelo Behar, Special Envoy for Bioeconomy COP30.

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Shaswata Kundu Chaudhuri

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