Current policies to lead to a “catastrophic temperature rise” of up to 3.1°C: Emissions Gap Report 

While the GHG emissions rose 1.3%  in 2023 from 2022 levels, it is still “technically possible” to meet the 1.5°C goal, but only with a G20-led massive global mobilisation to cut all GHG emissions immediately, says the report 

According to the Emissions Gap Report 2024 by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), continuing with current policies would lead to 3.1°C of warming. The report said that current commitments for 2030 are not being met. And even if they are met, the temperature increase would reach 2.6-2.8°C.

The 2.6°C scenario is predicated on the current unconditional and conditional NDCs being fully implemented. Only implementing the present unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would result in a temperature of 2.8°C, the report estimated. Temperatures would continue to climb into the following century under these scenarios, all of which have a chance of greater than 66%. Although there is currently little trust in the implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs, adding further net-zero pledges might limit global warming to 1.9°C.

The report said that nations must collectively commit to cutting 42% off annual GHG emissions by 2030 and 57 % by 2035 in the next round of NDCs. This must be backed up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years, the report warned. 

NDCs: Crucial for success

Ahead of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil early next year, updated NDCs must be submitted. According to the report, the globe would be on track for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C this century if ambition in these new NDCs is not increased and no immediate action is taken. The effects on people, the environment, and economies would be crippling.

The report also laid out how to ensure the updated NDCs are well-designed, specific and transparent so they can meet any new targets put in place. The report recommended that NDCs must include all gases listed in the Kyoto Protocol, cover all sectors, set specific targets, be explicit about conditional and unconditional elements and provide transparency around how the submission reflects a fair share of effort and the highest possible ambition.

The report said that the NDCs must also detail how national sustainable development goals can be achieved at the same time as efforts to reduce emissions, and include detailed implementation plans with mechanisms for review and accountability. For emerging markets and developing economies, NDCs should include details on the international support and finance they need.

The question of 2°C

The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28% by 2030 and 37% from 2019 levels by 2035— the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs. 

The report also emphasised the repercussions of inaction. The cuts required are relative to 2019 levels, but greenhouse gas emissions have since grown to a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. 

While this makes a marginal difference to the overall cuts required from 2019-2030, the delay in action means that 7.5% must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C, and 4% for 2°C. With each additional year of delay, the extent of the annual cuts that are needed will grow.  

1.5°C still “technically possible”, but massive effort needed

According to the report, there is technical potential for emissions cuts in 2030 up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent – which is around 52% of emissions in 2023 – and 41 gigatons in 2035.  At less than $200 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, this would close the deficit to 1.5°C in both years.

Increased use of wind and solar photovoltaic technologies might contribute 38% in 2035 and 27% in 2030 of the total reduction potential. In both years, forest action might provide about 20% of the potential. Efficiency improvements, electrification, and fuel switching in the transportation, manufacturing, and building sectors are further viable solutions.  

However, delivering on even some of this potential will require unprecedented international mobilisation and a whole-of-government approach, focusing on measures that maximise socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits and minimise trade-offs. 

Increased investment, reform of the  financial infrastructure

The report said a minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment is needed for net-zero— backed by reform of the global financial architecture, strong private sector action and international cooperation. This is affordable: the estimated incremental investment for net-zero is US$0.9-2.1 trillion per year from 2021 to 2050. These investments would bring returns in avoided costs from climate change, air pollution, damage to nature and human health impacts. For context, the global economy and financial markets are worth US$110 trillion per year.

G20 members, minus the African Union, accounted for 77% of emissions in 2023. The addition of the African Union as a permanent G20 member, which more than doubles the number of countries represented from 44 to 99, brings the share up by only 5% to 82%. This highlighted the need for differentiated responsibilities between nations. Stronger international support and enhanced climate finance will be essential to ensure that climate and development goals can be realised fairly across G20 members and globally.

“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion,” said António Guterres, UN Secretary-General. “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”

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