Fossil Fuels CO2 Emissions Hit Record in 2025 as Global Carbon Budget Nears Exhaustion

The report says that even though decarbonisation in energy systems is rapid, it’s not enough to offset the growth in energy demand

The latest Global Carbon Budget report found that fossil fuels carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record high.The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (around 170 billion tonnes of CO₂ ) will be exhausted in about four years if emissions continue at current levels.

The report is an annual, peer-reviewed report from the Global Carbon Budget of Future Earth and World Climate Research Programme. The annual report also found that emissions are 10% higher than when the Paris Agreement was adopted, a clear sign that despite progress, we are still heading in the wrong direction.

According to the report, coal emissions have slowed but have not yet peaked. To meet the Paris Agreement’s limits, coal-fired power will need to reduce emissions more than tenfold. This is equivalent to retiring around 360 average-sized coal-fired power plants for the next five years, and shutting down all current planning and development of new coal projects.

Emissions Projected to Rise in US 

China and India’s emissions in 2025 are projected to increase by only 0.4% and 1.4% respectively. The slow growth in emissions is attributed to strong growth of renewable energy in recent years. Emissions are projected to marginally rise in the US by 1.9% and in the European Union by 0.4% due to colder weather and other factors in 2025. 

The projected rise in CO2 is driven by all fuel types: coal +0.8%, oil +1%, natural gas +1.3%, emissions are projected to increase by 6.8% for international aviation (exceeding pre-COVID levels), said the report. 

The report found that over the 2015-2024 period, emissions from permanent deforestation remain high at around 4 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, while permanent removals through re/afforestation and forest regrowth offsets about half of the permanent deforestation emissions.

“It is 10 years since the Paris Agreement was negotiated, and despite progress on many fronts, fossil CO2 emissions continue their relentless rise. Climate change and variability are also having a discernable effect on our natural climate sinks,” said Glen Peters, Senior Researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. 

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