From Santa Marta to Bonn and Towards COP31, The Fossil-fuel Transition Needs Realism

As negotiators prepare for the Bonn climate meetings, the debate on transitioning away from fossil fuels needs to move beyond declarations of intent and confront the harder question of delivery. The Santa Marta conference in Colombia was an important milestone: the first global conference devoted specifically to transitioning away from fossil fuels. But it also exposed the limits of a conversation that is not yet anchored firmly enough in finance, technology transfer, energy security, critical minerals, and credible just-transition pathways for developing countries.

From Santa Marta to Bonn: The Test of Implementation

The conference tried to alter the climate discourse from reducing emissions to ending fossil fuels and attempted to build a “coalition of the willing” to act even without a consensus amongst all countries on the issue. The conference brought together scientists, civil society and indigenous people to make it actionable. It convened 400 global academics in the Science pre-conference, and formally launched a new “International Science Panel on Fossil Fuel Transition” to deliver agile and tailored analysis to help countries accelerate their transition. It also set up three workstreams to identify concrete ways to reduce fossil fuel dependence and strengthen cooperation on national roadmaps, finance architecture, and trade systems for clean energy.  It made references to the debt problems faced by developing countries, the need for a just transition, and the rights of indigenous people, all with major producers and consumers such as China, India, the US, and the Gulf countries absent and without providing any workable solutions to these vexed problems.

This is why Bonn matters. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) June Climate Meetings provide the next opportunity to test whether the fossil-fuel transition debate can be grounded in practical support rather than moral exhortation alone. 

A Broader Agenda Beyond Fossil Fuels

Beyond fossil fuels, Bonn carries four structurally significant threads. The most significant addition to Bonn's agenda is the launch of trade-climate dialogues. It is an acknowledgement that carbon border adjustments and green industrial subsidies can no longer be kept outside the UNFCCC process. Second, the operationalisation of the Just Transition Work Programme hangs on unresolved questions of its scope and mandate, with developing countries seeking assurance on how social protection of workers and communities will be meaningfully embedded. Third, on finance, the deepest fault line — Article 9.1 and Article 2.1c — resurfaces. The legal obligation of developed countries to provide finance is non-negotiable to developing countries, and it cannot be outsourced to the private sector. And finally, the Global Goal on Adaptation is entering its two-year pilot phase, where the harder test begins on implementation: which indicators are tracked, what technical support is mobilised, and who bears the cost. While Bonn may not be able to resolve all of this, it must prepare the ground for COP31.

On fossil fuel, the challenge at Bonn will be to have a space to spell out how countries with different development levels, resource endowments, energy-security concerns, and fiscal capacities can pursue such a transition in a just, orderly, and equitable manner. 

The need for transitioning away from fossil fuels is well recognised and accepted globally. G20 and other global forums have underlined the need for it over the years. The UAE consensus that emerged in COP28 found all countries accepting the "transitioning away from fossil fuels” decision. The framing of such a transition “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” was acceptable to all, as it acknowledged the differing realities of countries in terms of natural endowments, finance and stage of development. These articulations also brought out the real-world challenges of finance, technology and support.

The issue has always been contentious. While the bottom-up, country-driven nature of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement precludes any top-down prescription, various attempts have been made to negotiate an international treaty for a fossil-fuel-free world. COP30 in Belém witnessed this sharp divide, with the Presidency assuming responsibility for preparing the transition from the fossil fuel roadmap.

Energy Security Remains Central

The participation of nearly 60 countries at Santa Marta with ministers and envoys from across the five regions: Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and the EU participating in it points to its limited appeal. The ominous realities of the real world, reinforced by the current crisis in West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war, lack of energy access and energy security were hardly discussed.

Transitioning away from fossil fuels requires addressing some hard issues.

First, why have developed countries not been able to transition away from fossil fuels despite decades of progress and high per capita income? The challenges of intermittent renewable energy supply, battery storage, and the need for strong grids are real-world challenges even for the most developed nations.

Second, the concentration of critical minerals in China and a few other countries suggests that supply shocks and disruptions can pose a major challenge to the renewable energy plans of countries constrained by critical mineral supply. The current war in Iran has underscored the energy shock and travails that countries depending on energy imports face when supply chains are disrupted. Tackling this twin problem, countries need a diversified strategy: securing supplies through partnerships with mineral-rich countries, creating strategic reserves of critical minerals and investing in substitute technologies.

Third, the issue of just transition for workers dependent on coal or fossil fuel-based industries can’t be wished away till alternative jobs are created in the green sectors.  The central question is: who moves first, who bears the costs of transition, and how fairness and country-specific circumstances are to be factored in. 

Fourth, developing countries need access to finance, which is predictable, affordable, and large-scale, given high upfront capital costs and elevated investment risks, where private capital is not forthcoming.

Lastly, the need for technology transfers and support cannot be overemphasised. Access and transfer of technology can accelerate the transition and help developing countries scale up success stories.

It needs to be realised that developing countries are at different development stages and require tailored decarbonisation strategies that align with their economic, social, and energy contexts. Their transition to clean energy presents complex structural challenges, as their development pathways remain shaped by persistent energy access gaps, growing demand driven by urbanisation and industrialisation, and limited fiscal and technological capacity. For example, India’s renewable expansion faces challenges in the availability of land, ground-level grid integration and modernisation, and critical mineral supply constraints.  To add to this, developed countries lack sincerity, as their own transition since the UN Climate Change Convention was adopted in 1992 lacks ambition, not to mention lacklustre delivery on finance, technology transfer, or trade policy alignment. 

Developed Countries Must Lead by Example

The real impact of the Santa Marta conference and the proceedings at Bonn will depend on what countries do next. Many coalitions of the willing already exist, like the International Solar Alliance led by India, with over 125 member countries. The end of fossil fuels will require the developed countries to step up and lead this transition by example. At the same time, financial and technological support will have to be secured for the just energy transition of developing countries. Only then can a turning point in this journey be ensured. The 64th Subsidiary Bodies meeting of the UNFCCC at Bonn also provides an opportunity to take a more in-depth look at the Baku to Belem 1.3 Trillion Finance roadmap and how the enhanced financial support can support a transition from fossil fuel for developing countries.

Leaving the countries to find their own transition pathways does not add value to this discourse.

 
Ravi S. Prasad is Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and former Chief Climate Change Negotiator for India. Sumit Prasad is Programme Lead at CEEW. Views are personal.