India’s wind and solar generation needs to grow five times by 2030 to align with 1.5°C: Report

At the current pace of rollout, India is projected to reach around 400 GW of wind and solar by 2030, which falls short of the capacity needed by the end of the decade, the report says

A new analysis found that India’s wind and solar generation needs to grow five times by 2030 to align with 1.5°C, reaching around 1100 TWh of wind and solar. For that, the country would need further international climate finance support to meet growing demand and move away from coal dependence in line with 1.5°C, a new analysis found. 

As countries prepare to set new climate targets in their updated NDCs following a global commitment to triple renewables at COP28, a new analysis by Climate Analytics and the NewClimate Institute looked at what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. 

India is set to more than triple wind and solar capacity by 2030 compared to 2022. While India is installing wind and solar at an impressive pace, it still relies on coal to produce 75% of its electricity in 2023. With electricity demand growing rapidly in India, wind and solar will need to continue to accelerate to meet demand growth while phasing down coal power.

The analysis found that just over 600 GW of wind and solar would need to be installed by 2030 (460 GW of solar and 150 GW of wind). At the current pace of rollout, India is projected to reach around 400 GW of wind and solar by 2030. This falls short of the capacity needed in 2030 by 140 GW of solar and 70 GW of wind.

As countries prepare new 2035 targets for their updated NDCs, India has the opportunity to show climate leadership by including a 1.5°C-aligned target of 990 GW of solar and 210 GW of wind capacity installed by 2035, full achievement of which would require international climate finance support.

The report said that long-term planning and scaled up international climate finance will be vital to supporting India in rapidly moving away from coal dependence. To accelerate the growth of wind and solar in line with the Paris agreement, it is also crucial to roll out sufficient storage solutions to support the flexibility of wind and solar power, ensuring the rising energy demand during non-solar hours is met.

Across the globe

Across 11 countries that account for over 70% of current wind and solar power, the generation needs to grow five-fold by 2030 (three times faster than current yearly rates) and eightfold by 2035 to meet global climate goals, the analysis said.

These countries include Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Turkiye, South Africa, and the US. 

Across the 11 countries, wind has a key near-term role, providing more electricity than solar until the mid-2030s in a 1.5ºC aligned transition. By 2050, solar becomes dominant, providing around half of total electricity generation, and wind around a third. 

China hit its 2030 target to install 1.2 TW of wind and solar capacity six years early. Maintaining this accelerated growth could see the country install the 4.5 TW of wind and solar needed by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C, the analysis found. While China’s carbon emissions are set to peak, wind and solar need to grow even faster than rapidly growing electricity demand to force out large volumes of coal in the power sector, said the analysis. 

For the United States, the analysis found, wind and solar capacity needs to grow almost five-fold by 2030, reaching around 1400 GW of installed capacity to align with 1.5°C. The Inflation Reduction Act is working to accelerate the rollout of wind and solar, but the energy transition needs to progress even faster if the country is to meet its own target of decarbonising power by 2035.

According to the analysis, Germany’s 2030 targets for wind and solar are broadly where they need to be for 1.5°C. Germany has achieved ambitious deployment rates for wind and solar before and should now focus on delivering these targets. Committing to phase out coal by 2030 and fossil gas by 2035 would help ensure the country’s energy transition is Paris compatible. 

The analysis said that there is no single way to translate global goals to the national level. A country’s wind and solar rollout depends on a range of factors, including forecast electricity demand, the pace of fossil phase-out needed, the availability of other renewable technologies like hydropower and geothermal, and the split between wind and solar. 

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