Inside India’s Struggle to Build a Reliable Early Warning System

Part one of CarbonCopy’s two-part series on India’s forecasting challenge explores how the IMD is grappling with climate-fueled extremes, the gaps in early warnings, and what it will take to strengthen the country’s defense against intensifying disasters

In the mist-clad valleys of the Himalayas, where villages cling to fragile slopes and rivers roar with monsoon fury, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is grappling with one of its greatest challenges: predicting the unpredictable. Each year between June and September, unusual bursts of rainfall sweep across the Himalayan states and beyond, bringing flash floods, landslides, and devastation in their wake. While the IMD—an institution that recently marked 150 years of its existence—has been the nation’s frontline weather sentinel, it has also faced repeated criticism for failing to anticipate the intensity and timing of rainfall in these vulnerable regions.

Climate change has only made the job harder. Altered rainfall cycles, warmer air currents, and shifting monsoon patterns are making traditional forecasting models increasingly unreliable. The IMD’s current radar systems and observation networks, although expansive, struggle to capture the volatile microclimates of the mountains where a single cloudburst can unleash disaster. Experts argue that the department urgently needs to upgrade its forecasting arsenal, blending advanced satellite monitoring with high-resolution models designed for extreme terrain.

In this battle against uncertainty, technology could become IMD’s most powerful ally. Artificial intelligence and machine learning promise sharper predictions, better risk mapping, and quicker warnings—tools that may help save lives as climate extremes intensify. The question is whether the IMD can reinvent itself fast enough to meet the storms of tomorrow.

“India’s Wettest August in Decades: A Monsoon on Overdrive”

Northwest India has endured an unusually wet core-monsoon (June–August) this year, capped by a record-soaked August. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that northwest India logged 265 mm in August alone—the region’s wettest August since 2001— driving June–August rainfall to 614.2 mm, about 27% above the long-period average (LPA) of 484.9 mm. Nationally, June–August rainfall reached 743.1 mm, roughly 6% above the LPA and there are warnings for September as well. 

Himachal Pradesh is emblematic of the severity. The state recorded 431.3 mm in August, 68% above its normal 256.8 mm—its wettest August in 76 years (since 1949). Consecutive days of heavy rain have triggered widespread landslides, blocked more than a thousand roads and raised the season’s death toll, underscoring how saturated slopes convert intense bursts into disasters. 

Uttarakhand has swung wetter than average this season. By mid-August, the state had received ~947.9 mm, about 14% above its LPA of 830.1 mm, with subsequent red alerts as moisture from the Bay of Bengal met an active western disturbance. Cloudburst-type events and debris flows have punctuated the season, even in districts showing “normal” cumulative totals—highlighting how short, intense cells can overwhelm steep catchments. 

Punjab saw its wettest August in 25 years with 253.7 mm rainfall, 74% above normal, flooding rivers Sutlej, Beas and Ravi. In Jammu & Kashmir, seasonal rainfall was near normal until August 17, before a late-August deluge brought 612 mm, 726% above normal, the highest since 1950. 

Farther south, Maharashtra’s August was emphatically active. Statewide rainfall reached about 331.8 mm, 18% above the normal 280.2 mm. Mumbai alone clocked roughly 891 mm in August—well above its long-term average near 561 mm—and pushed its season total past 2,193 mm, exceeding the city’s seasonal norm of about 2,102 mm. The Konkan–Ghats corridor saw repeated very heavy to extremely heavy spells linked to Bay-of-Bengal lows propagating west. 

The through-line is clear. More moisture in a warming atmosphere, funneled by the monsoon and pinned by orography, is amplifying both the frequency and intensity of heavy-rain days in hill states and adjoining plains. August’s 265 mm over northwest India (highest since 2001) is the statistical signal; the landslides in Himachal, the river floods across Punjab, the late-season surge in Jammu, and the urban flood stress in Mumbai are the lived realities. With IMD flagging an above-normal September and a likely delayed withdrawal, the hydrological load on already saturated basins will persist into early autumn, testing embankments, hill roads and emergency responses across the region.

Beyond Cloudbursts: Slow Rainfall Weakens Himalayas

Disasters in the Himalayas are often hastily described as “cloudbursts.” While that explains some events, experts caution that not all devastation stems from sudden torrents. Increasingly, prolonged moderate rainfall at higher elevations is being observed, as clouds condense in zones that historically remained drier. Experts and meteorologists link this shift to rising temperatures in the upper Himalayas, a clear imprint of climate change.

Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, who recently co-authored the report South Asian Summer Monsoon: Processes, Prediction, and Societal Impacts with climate scientists Parthsarathy Mukhopadhyaya and Arindam Chakraborty, stresses that global warming is already reshaping rainfall. Longer dry spells are now interspersed with short, intense bursts of precipitation.

“With global warming, rising humidity is loading the atmosphere with excess moisture. But this warming also stretches dry spells, holding back rain until the skies release it in sudden, violent bursts,” Rajeevan told CarbonCopy. “The result is a dangerous pattern—long lulls broken by cloudbursts and flash floods—that is now playing out across India’s mountains and plains.”

Adding to this, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), explains how rising temperatures intensify rainfall. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and with every 1°C increase, its relative humidity rises by about 7%. 

“This creates favourable conditions for convective and deep thunderstorm activity. So due to climate change, especially in the tropics, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall is increasing. Of course, there are variations from place to place, but the overall trend is clear,” he says.

Rajeevan adds that the data backs the trend. “If you really take the past hundred years of data and analyse extreme precipitation or heavy rainfall events, we get a systematic trend that the frequency of extreme rainfall is increasing. And that is not everywhere. Especially over central plains, the west coast, and the foothills of the Himalayas, the frequency of such events is increasing. That is mainly attributed to global warming.”

In the higher Himalaya, the risk is amplified by topography. Valleys are sharply vertical and slopes rest on fragile glacial moraines. Even prolonged moderate rainfall can oversaturate this loose material, unleashing landslides and floods as destructive as any cloudburst.

Geologist Navin Juyal says, “For years, I thought the Himalaya was still some distance from climate change impacts. But recent large-scale events across the region show temperature rise is now knocking at the Himalaya’s door. With July 2023 recorded as the hottest month in 120,000 years, I fear we are moving dangerously close to the 1.5°C tipping point. Once crossed, the changes will be irreversible, and the fragile Himalayan cryosphere could face massive devastation.”

This is part of a larger phenomenon called elevation-dependent warming (EDW), where mountain regions heat faster than the lowlands. EDW accelerates glacier retreat, exposes darker rock that absorbs more heat, and loads the atmosphere with additional moisture. Together, these changes are amplifying extreme rainfall and destabilizing the Himalayan cryosphere.

In an interview to Carboncopy, Mohapatra, repeatedly underlined how fragile the Himalayan ecosystem is—pointing out that even 50 mm of rain can destabilise slopes and trigger landslides. He notes that in July, when glacier melt peaks, elevation-dependent warming amplifies the risks dramatically. Against this backdrop, the need for a robust forecasting and early warning system is no longer optional but essential—not just for the Himalayas but for safeguarding lives and economies across the entire tropical region.

Can India’s Forecasting Agencies Keep Up With Extreme Rain?

India’s ability to cope with intensifying rainfall and floods hinges on the performance of two agencies: the IMD and the Central Water Commission (CWC). Both sit at the centre of the country’s early warning and flood-management architecture. Both have made advances. And both face serious credibility gaps.

In recent years, the IMD has significantly strengthened its forecasting and early warning capacity. Once criticised for broad, often vague predictions, the agency now issues more precise, region-specific alerts that reach millions through mobile apps, WhatsApp, X, and Common Alert Protocols.

Its biggest advances have come from technology: high-resolution numerical models under the Bharat Forecast System, supported by supercomputers such as Mihir, Pratyush, and Arka, enable faster and finer simulations of monsoon dynamics. At the same time, IMD has expanded its Doppler weather radar network, improving real-time monitoring of thunderstorms and cyclones. Satellite platforms like INSAT-3D and 3DR have enhanced cloud and rainfall assessments. On the ground, a wider network of automatic weather stations and rain gauges is filling critical observational gaps, from cities to remote regions.

Mohapatra explains that India is doubling down on radar capacity to sharpen extreme weather forecasting — especially crucial in the tropics, where storms form swiftly and unpredictably.

He says: “With radar coverage expanding from 37 to 73 sites by 2025-26—and aiming for 126 by 2026—IMD is boosting its ability to detect severe weather well before it unfolds. These upgrades, paired with improved modelling and faster data feeds, will bring critical lead time to forecasters and communities alike.”

Yet capacity does not always translate into accuracy. IMD bulletins often remain broad and unspecific, flagging “heavy rain in northwest India” rather than pinpointing which districts or river catchments will be hit. This gap is critical. Local administrations cannot pre-position relief or evacuate communities if the warning map covers entire states. 

Further, many expanding urban and hill regions still lack dense observation stations, leaving large blind spots. The agency has acknowledged the need to shift from rainfall totals to impact-based forecasts, but operationalising this remains a work in progress.

IMD has faced sharp criticism after repeated forecast misses—whether it was predicting a “pleasant” May in Delhi this year or underestimating Mumbai’s July rains by 42% last year. Such lapses often spark comparisons with European or US agencies, where forecasts are considered more reliable.

But scientists caution that this is not a level playing field. Mid-latitude weather systems in Europe are better organised and easier to track, while India’s tropical setting—complicated further by the Himalayas’ rugged terrain—makes accurate prediction far more complex.

As Dr. Raghavan Krishnan, former director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), says, “We must remember that mid-latitude weather, like in Europe, is easier to predict than tropical weather. India has made major advances in cyclone forecasting, but Himalayan extremes are far more complex because of the terrain and tropical influences. Climate change is also preconditioning the region for more such events. The challenge is greater here, but the way forward lies in combining technology, research, and preparedness.”

CWC: The Rule Curve Question

If IMD’s weakness is precision, CWC’s is dam management transparency. The commission monitors river flows and oversees reservoir operations, but has been repeatedly accused of allowing uncoordinated, large-volume dam releases that amplify floods downstream.

The heart of the issue lies in rule curves—the seasonal operating guidelines that define how much water a dam should store or release. In practice, these curves are either outdated, poorly enforced, or simply withheld from the public. Punjab’s 2025 floods reignited the debate, with experts pointing to near-simultaneous releases from Bhakra, Pong, and Ranjit Sagar dams that worsened inundation across districts. Similar questions were raised after the Kerala floods of 2018, when sudden releases coincided with peak rainfall. Without strict adherence to rule curves and real-time disclosure of reservoir levels, CWC risks being seen not as a flood manager but a flood multiplier.

Despite criticism over flood severity, the Central Water Commission and dam authorities have consistently denied any mismanagement. For instance, BBMB Chairman Manoj Tripathi emphasized that the Bhakra and Pong reservoirs played a protective role, arguing that “had it not been for the dams, Punjab would have faced floods as early as June” under the extraordinary water inflows this season. Similarly, following Kerala’s 2018 deluge, the then Water Resources Minister Mathew Thomas had cited CWC findings that extreme rainfall—not dam mismanagement—was to blame, as the rainfall far exceeded any dam’s capacity to mitigate 

Better coordination between the IMD and the CWC could sharply reduce losses from floods and droughts. If IMD’s rainfall forecasts are harnessed effectively, and CWC incorporates them into updated and well-enforced rule curves, both floods and water scarcity can be mitigated, say experts.

Dr. Madhavan Rajeevan, former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (under which IMD functions), says, “The CWC is responsible for flood warnings in this country, while IMD provides the rainfall forecasts needed for such alerts. CWC then estimates how much water will flow into rivers and how levels will rise. But in my understanding, they still rely on outdated empirical methods, even though much better forecasting techniques are now available. I am not blaming CWC, but both their systems and IMD’s own methods have clear scope for improvement.”

AI Joins India’s Weather Playbook

IMD still banks on physics-based Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems powered by supercomputers and dense observation networks for its forecasts. But the department has also begun deploying Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, from AI-driven cyclone tracking and intensity estimation to local-scale nowcasting tools — marking a shift from purely physical models to hybrid, data-powered forecasting.

Rajeevan welcomed the use of AI for faster and more wide-ranging weather forecasts. Citing examples such as Google’s GraphCast model, he argued that advanced technology can significantly enhance accuracy.

“The GraphCast can run even on a small computer,” Rajeevan said. “It doesn’t need the massive machines that IMD relies on today. That makes it useful, because AI models can complement and strengthen our physical models.”

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra underscored that the department’s vast archive of weather records could become a game-changer in building powerful AI systems. Like other countries, he said, India too is moving to harness the technology.

“IMD is a 150-year-old institution with an enormous digital database,” Mohapatra said. “We have weather records going back to 1901, all digitised. AI is essentially data-driven—so why shouldn’t we use this treasure of information and scientific knowledge? IMD can be a great laboratory for such work, and we are partnering with IITs, IIITs and other universities to develop AI models.”

Clearly, India’s deepening rainfall crisis is as much about governance as it is about science. A warming climate is amplifying extremes, but better forecasts, smarter dam management, and stronger coordination can turn risk into resilience. With AI tools, expanded radar networks, and a century of weather data at hand, the question now is whether India can act fast enough to translate warnings into saved lives and safer futures.

In the next report: 

CarbonCopy turns the spotlight on the private sector’s role in weather forecasting—examining how private players can collaborate with IMD and what that means for the market and end users.

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Hridayesh Joshi

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