Lula Pitches Fossil Fuel Phase-Out at COP30, But Can a Divided World Agree?

Stalled climate finance widens trust gap with developing countries

With Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva flying into Belém on Wednesday, two things changed at the COP30 venue — the mood became more urgent, and the phrase ‘fossil fuel phase out’ was on everyone’s tongues. 

While the need to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ was one of the key takeaways from COP28 held in Dubai two years back, the 80-year-old politician called on world leaders to create a fossil fuel phase out roadmap during a summit held just days before COP30 began. 

This sentiment found its way into the first iteration of the draft text of the Global Mutirão document released by the COP30 Presidency. Under paragraph 35, three options are given for possible incorporation of a fossil fuel roadmap, including one option for “no text”.

More than 80 countries from Asia, Latin America, the Pacific, Europe and Africa have reportedly extended their support for the roadmap. 

Based on current climate policies, temperature rise is expected to hit 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 according to an analysis by Climate Action Tracker. So transitioning away from fossil fuels is a necessity if the world aspires to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep the temperature rise well below  2°C, ideally at 1.5 degree celsius.

But the question to be asked here is whether all the parties, especially petrostates and large developing economies, still leaning on fossil fuels for growth, will agree to such a roadmap? Another concern is whether this issue will distract from the other issues – especially finance and justice – that are still being debated at the conference.

Public finance takes precedence

“Whether it is transitioning away from fossil fuels, tripling renewable energy, or developing energy efficiency, the challenge is in getting to that stage of distillation. But without grant-based public finance, it is not feasible for developing countries to transition,” said Mohamed Adow, founding director of Power Shift Africa, during a press conference held at COP30. The key issue is deliverance of public finance, especially finance for adapting to rising climate impacts.

“The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) indicators will be the measure of success at Belém, which is being pushed for acceptance by developing countries. But we need means to adapt, especially African countries, SIDS and other vulnerable countries,” he said.

According to Adow, a clear roadmap which includes deadlines for how and when the fossil fuel phase out will be implemented is necessary. “Developing countries need climate finance to deliver on the transition. Without adaptation finance, the African group will not settle for GGA indicators,” he added.

Edwin Josué Castellanos López, the Vice Minister of Natural Resources and Climate Change of Guatemala, also stressed the urgency of public, grant-based finance. “We need this, and we need it now. We need more accessible and higher levels of climate finance,” he told CarbonCopy. 

On the issue of fossil fuels phase out, while Guatemala supports it, it recognises that it is not a fast process. “We ourselves won’t be able to go without fossil fuels for many decades, especially in the transportation [sector]. We realise it is going to be difficult, but we need to start moving in that direction. It will not happen immediately, but it has to happen if we want to achieve 1.5°C,” said López.

When asked what could be the potential barriers to achieving consensus on the roadmap, he said, “Finance is one of the key points of disputes. Reduction of emissions is also difficult to negotiate.”

Interestingly, the key blockers to the issue of finance, including adaptation finance, are the EU and the UK — parties who have put their weight behind the roadmap. 

While this roadmap is grabbing eyeballs at the conference, there is no mention of the ‘transition away from fossil fuels” on COP30’s official agenda. Nor is it part of the informal presidency consultations, where the four contentious issues — finance, trade, NDCs, and transparency — are being debated.

Need for a just transition

Ministers from several countries including the UK, Germany and Denmark, and the Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC) group extended their support for transitioning away from fossil fuels on Monday during a press conference. 

“The current reference in the text is weak and it’s presented as an option. It must be strengthened and it must be adopted. Let’s get behind the idea of a fossil fuel roadmap, let’s work together and make it a plan,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands.

Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change of the UK said that COP30 has the opportunity to build on COP28 and further the global transition away from fossil fuels. “Renewables are the more secure, cheaper, and cleaner option. A just, orderly, and fair transition is needed, including for workers in oil and gas industries,” he said. The UK has provided just under £3 billion in climate finance in 2024–25, but analysts say a significant share of this total comes from accounting tweaks that relabel existing aid and private-sector investments as climate finance, inflating the numbers without adding much new money.

While experts from civil society groups also agree on the need for an equitable and just transition, they also demand a closer inspection at the countries’ policies which are supporting the roadmap.

“Yes, we need an orderly, equitable and just transition away from fossil fuels. But a lot of the developed countries which are interested in this are not only expanding fossil fuels domestically, but also their demand is fuelling fossil fuel expansion in other countries as well,” said Shreeshan Venkatesh, Global Policy Lead, Climate Action Network (CAN) International, during a press conference.

Non-consensus

Rich, developed countries that are voicing the much needed call for phasing out fossil fuels, have so far remained silent on  delivery of public finance. If finance does not come through, will there be any consensus on the roadmap? Major developing economies like India and China that have large populations that need reliable access to energy  have consistently resisted an immediate phase out of fossil fuels citing UNFCCC’s Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities principle,  which gives them the right to develop and transition based on their circumstances  

For India, where coal usage is expected to peak by 2040, it seems unlikely that it will support this roadmap, according to Ravi Prasad, a distinguished fellow at the Council On Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).

“At this current juncture, India cannot move away from coal due to high energy demand, even though India’s per capita consumption and emissions is far lower than developed ones,” he said. And given that while India, which has Net Zero target for 2070,  is parallelly investing heavily in renewables, it will need all energy sources to reach its development goals in the coming decade,  

Retired diplomat and India’s former lead negotiator Manjeev Puri said that despite its growing status, India is already charting a path for a transition. “This [roadmap] is a curtailment of the use of fossil fuels for development. India already has roadmaps for RE and net-zero. It is working domestically. What is needed is support for an equitable and just transition by the developed world.”

Some clarity was expected at the press conference where President Lula was present on Wednesday. However, he did not announce anything related to the roadmap. Instead, he said, “In COP, we don’t want to impose anything on anybody. We respect the political sovereignty of every country.” 

The expected second iteration of the text also did not arrive. A press conference to be held by the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, on Thursday is expected to shed light on how the roadmap will shape up, and whether it will address more than just fossil fuels.

According to CAN’s Venkatesh, the ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ has to be well rounded. “You cannot have one half of that — talk about fossil fuels without the operative part of it. It includes systemic barriers, finance, enabling conditions, historic responsibility, capacity to do things, and capability of a country. Is that what is being asked for in the roadmap? If not, it is unlikely that there will be consensus,” Venkatesh told CarbonCopy. 

About The Author

Shaswata Kundu Chaudhuri

See author's posts