Majority of countries yet to submit NDCs as deadline approaches next week

Countries accounting for just 16% of global emissions have submitted full plans so far; leading companies and investors are closely watching governments

Next week marks the UN’s deadline of February 10 for national climate plans, which includes new emissions reduction objectives for 2035. While the US is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, the UK, Brazil, US, Switzerland, New Zealand, UAE, and Uruguay have submitted full plans, accounting for 16% of global emissions. 

“With major contributors resisting further commitments in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025, there is a pressing need to realign global efforts and build international pressure—particularly on the U.S.—to ensure that developed economies fulfill their responsibilities, said Aruna Sharma, former secretary, Ministry of Steel, Govt of India.

Sharma said that the world must push for stronger commitments from developed economies to support developing and underdeveloped economies in the interest of global public good.
“In India, irrespective of the NDCs, the government is on track for a clean energy growth pathway,” Sharma said. However, an updated NDC is India’s chance to claim the global climate leadership at a time when the US has abdicated that position and the EU is in political turmoil, he added. 

Experts in India and Global South have said that EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) contradicts the spirit of the Paris Agreement, which calls for developed economies to take responsibility for their historical emissions and instead plans use the extra tax exclusively for the domestic industry to invest to reduce emissions and not share with countries from where EU imports.

Delayed submissions expected 

While the UN-set deadline is February 10, delays to the NDCs are not unusual. During the last NDC round, in February 2020, only 48 countries submitted by the end of the year, with most catching up by COP26 in late 2021.

Developing comprehensive, cross-sector climate plans requires significant coordination and planning among governments and key actors. With over 60 national leadership changes in 2024, it’s likely governments will take their time to craft plans that send positive indicators to business leaders who are calling them “national investment plans.” 

“The late submission of NDCs does not in any way signal a lack of ambition or a potential u-turn in commitments to climate action. There are a number of factors that affect individual country delays and these can include capacity constraints— particularly in developing countries, time needed to consult stakeholders for desired higher ambition, as well as the need to develop policies to enable an ambitious NDC. In the case of South Africa and other developed nations, international negotiations and climate finance commitments are key to unlocking an ambitious NDC,” said Lebogang Mulaisi, executive manager, policy and research, South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission (PCC).

G20 to keep ambitions high

Brazilian leadership in charge of COP30 in Belem have named NDCs as a priority for the November summit. During last year’s G20 summit in Rio, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva urged nations to move up their climate-neutrality deadlines to 2040 or 2045 instead of 2050. 

Analysts have welcomed the ambitious 81% target from the UK and are now calling on other G20 countries to follow suit. On the other hand, New Zealand and Canada have faced criticism for announcing weak targets, with New Zealand increasing its reduction goal by just -1% and Canada setting a range that allows for no improvement from its previous target. With only seven formal submissions, it will likely be late 2025 before scientists can assess whether the updated plans keep global warming within the 1.5°C target.

“We need all G20 countries to step up and cut emissions. Timely submissions of new ambitious climate targets by the summer are critical to set COP30 up for success,“ said Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland.

The UK and EU in particular have a responsibility to lead by example. But this is also an opportunity to accelerate the continent’s green investments. The market for clean energy technologies is set to triple to more than $2 trillion over the next ten years. Choosing to be part of this race means choosing global competitiveness and jobs for Europe, Robinson added.

Experts have said that as the deadline for submitting the next round of national climate plans to the UN is fast approaching, leading companies and investors are closely watching governments.

Andrew Prag, managing director of policy, We Mean Business Coalition, said, “The transition from fossil to clean energy solutions is now inevitable because clean energy is cheaper, healthier, and better for energy security. By putting forward strong NDCs, countries can create jobs, increase their industrial competitiveness and boost economic growth. Those that fail to do so risk being left behind.”

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