Nations to produce 120% more fossil fuels in 2030 than needed to limit to 1.5°C: Report

If global warming were to be limited to 2°C, even then the volume of planned fossil fuel production in 2030 would be 77% more

Governments plan to produce about more than double (120%) the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, according to the 2025 Production Gap Report. 

It further added that if global warming were to be limited to 2°C, even then the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 would be 77% more. If this does happen, then the world will even further away from the goals decided during the Paris Agreement.

The 2025 Production Gap Report was produced by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). 

Since the last time the report was compiled in 2023, countries are planning even higher levels of coal production to 2035 and gas production to 2050. For oil, planned production continues to increase to 2050.

Increasing fossil fuels across the world

The report analysed 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries responsible for about 80% of global fossil fuel production. Its findings include that 17 of the 20 featured countries still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel to 2030.

Eleven now expect higher production of at least one fossil fuel in 2030 than they had planned in 2023. On the other hand, 6 of the 20 profiled countries are now developing domestic fossil fuel production aligned with national and global net zero targets, up from four in 2023, found the report.

Back in 2023, when the former report was compiled, the fossil fuel production gap was 110% above the 1.5°C warming pathway and 69% more than the 2°C pathway. 

“In 2023, governments formally acknowledged the need to move away from fossil fuels to mitigate climate change – an obligation the International Court of Justice has now clearly emphasized. But as our report makes clear, while many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago,” said Derik Broekhoff, coordinating lead author of the Production Gap Report.

Meeting climate targets uphill task

The report underscored the need to undertake steeper and faster reductions in fossil fuel production if the world wants to limit global warming to well below 2°C. Another issue is that the fossil fuel infrastructure, which is primarily subsidised through public funds, will eventually end up as stranded assets.

The report advocated that achieving these reductions will require deliberate, coordinated policies to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels. While a few major fossil-fuel-producing countries have begun to align production plans with national and international climate goals, most still have not.

“To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs rapid reductions in coal, oil, and gas investments, redirecting these resources toward an energy transition that prioritizes equity and justice. By COP30, governments must commit to expand renewables, phase out fossil fuels, manage energy demands, and implement community-centered energy transitions to align with Paris Agreement obligations. Without these commitments, delaying action further will lock in additional emissions and worsen climate impacts on the world’s most vulnerable populations,” said Emily Ghosh, coordinating lead author. 

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