Paris Agreement Target of 1.5°C Won’t Protect Polar Ice Sheets: Study

Researchers say that further work is needed to determine “safe” temperature targets to avoid sea level rise but it could be closer to 1°C

A new study suggests that efforts to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement may not be enough to save the world’s ice sheets.  Research led by Durham University in the United Kingdom said that while more research is needed to find a ‘safe’ level of temperature that would bring ice sheets back to equilibrium state, the targets would likely be closer to 1°C to prevent further sea-level rise.

The mass of ice lost from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s, and they are currently losing around 370 million tonnes of ice each year (four times more than in the 1990s) with current warming levels of around 1.2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, as cited in the report.

On limiting warming to 1.5°C, the authors said they see no evidence to suggest this would halt or slow the rate of sea level rise from the world’s ice sheets. 

Threat to Millions

This rapid increase will also make it more difficult and far more expensive to adapt to rising sea levels, causing extensive loss and damage to coastal and island populations. This will also lead to the displacement of around 230 million people who live within one meter of sea level.

The researchers said that policymakers and governments need to be more aware of the effects a 1.5°C rise in temperatures could have on ice sheets and sea levels. Melting ice represents an existential threat to people living near these areas, including several low-lying nations.

The research said that avoiding this scenario would require a global temperature lower than that of today, which is closer to 1°C above, or possibly even lower than, pre-industrial levels. Along with this, further work is urgently needed to determine a “safe” temperature target to avoid sea-level rise.

“We are not necessarily saying that all is lost at 1.5°C, but we are saying that every fraction of a degree really matters for the ice sheets—and the sooner we can halt the warming, the better, because this makes it far easier to return to safer levels further down the line,” said Professor Chris Stokes, lead author of the research.

Professor Stokes added that during the 1990s, when the global temperature was above 1°C, carbon dioxide concentrations were 350 parts per million, which others have suggested is a much safer limit for Planet Earth. Carbon dioxide concentrations are currently around 424 parts per million and continue to increase.

About The Author

Editorial Team

A team of handpicked and dedicated writers committed to fact check each climate-related statement. Go to the roots and intent of each policy implemented, internationally and at home to help you understand climate better

See author's posts