Relaxing fertility and retirement policies can drive up emissions in China: Study

The younger population has a relatively higher household carbon footprint than the older population, owing to income and lifestyle differences

Big, developing economies like China and India face a tough conundrum: prioritise development or climate protections? Population is a big issue in this context: the higher the population, the higher the emissions.

For China, which ended its one-child policy in 2016, this has major climate impacts. According to a recent study, relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement ages both increase population, and both these policies increase the domestic carbon footprint of households. The impact of fertility relaxation is higher, it found.

The study, titled ‘Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions’ based their study on data from across regions in China, including environmental factors, household carbon footprints for diverse population age groups, and age-sex-specific population under different fertility policies up to 2060. 

Inverse relations

China wants to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, after peaking its carbon emissions in 203o. It’s well on the path to peaking, considering its the largest carbon emitter in the world now, even though its carbon emissions growth has slowed down from 10% between 2000–2010 to 2% between 2010–2020, said the study.

But its large population is turning its less-carbon trajectory awry. The second-most populous country’s population is still growing. It is projected that China’s population will peak at 1.45 billion in 2029, according to the study.

While the proportion of Chinese people aged 65  years and above was 14% in 2020, it’s the younger population that has relatively higher household carbon footprints, thanks to income differences, according to the study.

“In China, carbon footprint is inversely correlated with age,” found the study. People under 30 years of age have the highest carbon footprints, as opposed to the trend in developed countries, where older people have higher carbon footprints. 

Besides age, the main drivers of the difference in carbon footprints by age groups is wealth and income. In developing countries like China, younger people tend to have higher incomes than older people, which is almost as much as 57%, according to the study. This correlates into higher consumption and carbon footprints, by 69% and 77%, respectively.

Carbon intensive activities

The two main determinants of carbon footprints across age groups in China are lodging and transportation. For younger people, lodging has the highest carbon footprint at 46%, whether it’s from renting or buying residences in big cities, found the study. Using a multitude of electronic devices also adds to the footprint.

Transportation comes second, accounting for 25% of their carbon footprint. According to the study, this is due to regular commuting between lodging and workplace, and some longer, travel trips, including visiting their hometowns.

For older people, higher carbon footprints come from using traditional energy-intensive appliances for cooking or heating.

But the clinching factor here is that carbon footprints due to consumption of clothing, goods and transport usually reduce with age.

When one brings relaxed fertility and retirement policies into the mix, the results are notable. Relaxing fertility policies increase carbon footprints by 21–35%, while changes in retirement policies only increase it by 2–3%, the study found. Combined, both policies have a greater impact, it concluded.

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