Rising drought and aridity leading to higher internal migration globally: Study

The effects are particularly strong in rural areas majorly dependent on agriculture, especially in drylands in Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East and South America, the study says

A new study found that drought and aridity have significant impacts on internal migration around the world. These effects are most noticeable in rural areas that rely heavily on agriculture, especially in drylands in Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. 

Agriculture is a major economic sector and a source of local food supply, particularly in low-income nations. Due to the consequences of drought and aridity on agricultural production and livelihoods, rural and agriculturally reliant communities are especially vulnerable.

Researchers used census-based data from 72 countries during 1960–2016 to analyse 1,07,840 migration flows between subnational regions. 

Impact of increased dryness on migration

Hyper-arid and arid regions—which are defined by high degrees of dryness, high temperatures, and little rainfall—have the largest migration responses, the study said. 

The study also found that when a region becomes more arid, fewer people migrate to that area.

Households may finally reach a point when relocation is the only practical alternative when they are under a lot of stress since it may no longer be possible to cope and adapt where they are. Future aridity increases could worsen land degradation and desertification in these regions, reducing crop output and further taxing the already precarious local populations, the study warned. 

Away from agriculture, to urban areas

The study said rising dryness and aridity have a greater influence on migration flows from less urbanised to more urbanised regions. Furthermore, migration out of areas is higher in areas with a larger proportion of agricultural employment than the national average. 

On the other hand, noted the study, no trends regarding destination areas—areas people migrated to—was observed in the study. For those migrating to other places due to the impacts of drought and aridity, employment in agriculture did not factor in to choose the location they were migrating to. 

Higher impact on poorer sections 

Although migration responses were overall stronger in richer countries, indicating that a certain level of wealth is necessary to enable mobility, the within-country analysis revealed a more nuanced pattern. The study found that regions with comparatively lower income in a country experience a higher rate of out-migration. 

This implied that although wealthier nations tend to have higher levels of mobility generally, people tend to react more strongly to increased drought and aridity in the poorest areas of those nations. 

While older age groups in more developed nations are more prone to move, middle-aged and working-age groups in less developed countries exhibit the largest migration response to drought and aridity. In higher-income environments, when older population groups are more mobile, it might be the result of retirement migration, in which people relocate to places with better climates, the study said. 

Need to build support systems

According to the study, forecasts indicate that as climate change progresses, drought and arid conditions will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world. People who reside in regions with ongoing water shortages and agricultural difficulties will likely be under more pressure to look for better living circumstances and alternate sources of income elsewhere.

The study recommended that support to promote migration and improved ways to safeguard themselves and their communities are necessary for those who must relocate but lack the means to do so. Likewise, it is critical to provide sufficient infrastructure, facilities, and social and health services in destination areas for an expanding urban population, considering the critical role of the rural-to-urban migration corridor. 

Policies that encourage social safety nets and livelihood diversification can help safeguard both mobile and immobile individuals, foster resilience in impacted communities, and lessen forced migration and displacement, concluded the study. 

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