The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a slight delay in monsoon onset over Kerala this year. In its forecast, the IMD said that the monsoon is expected to arrive on June 4, and its error margin is +/- 4 days. However, private forecaster Skymet Weather has predicted the date as June 7, with an error margin of +/- 3 days. Hot weather conditions will continue deep into June over central and northern parts of the country. In the last 10 years, the earliest arrival was on May 29 in 2018 and 2022 and the most delayed was on June 8, 2019.
Cyclone Mocha devastates Myanmar coast, India launches operation to provide humanitarian assistance
Cyclone Mocha made landfall in Myanmar’s Rakhine State on May 14 with winds roaring as fast as 175 miles (280 kilometres) per hour, making it a category-five storm. The powerful cyclone hit the coastlines of Myanmar and Bangladesh with almost 5.4 million people estimated to have been in the path of the cyclone. Although it largely spared the Bangladesh coast and more than one million Rohingya refugees residing in camps around Cox’s Bazar – where it was expected to make landfall earlier – it left a devastating impact on western Rakhine state’s capital city Sittwe. Mocha has become the strongest cyclone ever recorded in the North Indian Ocean, including for all seasons and in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, since 1982. The Indian government launched Operation Karuna to provide humanitarian assistance to people in Myanmar. Four Indian Naval ships reached Yangon with relief materials.
At 1.5°C warming, extreme weather events may be permanent in 20 countries: Study
According to a new study, the world will see a disproportionate increase in extreme events even if global warming is curtailed at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Extreme wind events, heatwaves, droughts, and maximum one-day rainfall will likely become permanent in 20 countries. If the warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius, such events can become a regular occurrence for 37 countries and 85 countries can be impacted if it increases by 3 degrees Celsius. At the current level of warming, the frequency of heatwaves in mid and high-latitude and subtropical countries has more than doubled compared to preindustrial levels and has quadrupled in tropical countries. At 1.5 degree Celsius, the number of concurrent heat wave-drought events is estimated to increase by 4.5 times in tropical countries.
April heat waves in Asia were ’30 times more likely’ because of climate change: Study
A record-breaking humid heat wave hit large parts of South and Southeast Asia in April, especially India, Bangladesh, Laos and Thailand. It was made at least 30 times more likely by climate change, according to an international team of scientists. During April 17 and 20, large populations across Asia were exposed to a heat index of over 41 degrees Celsius and some areas, particularly in Laos recorded a heat index of over 54 degrees Celsius.
30% of species could be abruptly lost at 2.5°C of warming: Study
A new study found that climate change is likely to abruptly push species over tipping points as their geographic ranges reach unforeseen temperatures. The new study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution analysed data of over 36,000 marine and terrestrial species of animals and seagrasses from every continent and ocean basin, alongside climate projections running up to 2100. According to the study, if the planet warms by 1.5°C, 15% of species they studied will be at risk of experiencing unfamiliarly hot temperatures across at least 30% of their existing geographic range in a single decade, but this doubles to 30% of species at 2.5°C of warming.
Smoke from Australia’s colossal bushfires may have triggered rare ‘triple dip’ La Niña
Australia’s 2019–2020 catastrophic bushfire season was exceptional in both its severity and particulate emissions as it burned down 20% of the country’s forests and affected 80% of its people. A recent study has found that the smoke from the summer fires may have resulted in the rare “triple dip” La Niña that lasted from 2020 to 2022. Smoke aerosols from the bushfires interacted with clouds to cool surface waters over the south-eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean, creating favourable conditions for a La Niña to form. The research is expected to provide an opportunity to improve ENSO forecasts. At present, there’s no forecasting system that actually considers wildfire emissions for seasonal predictions.
DRC Congo floods: More than 400 dead, thousands left homeless
More than 400 people have died after floods and landslides hit the Democratic Republic of Congo’s South Kivuprovince earlier this month. Heavy rainfalls on May 2 and 4 caused rivers to overflow and created mudslides that devastated the villages of Bushushu and Nyamukubi in South Kivu’s Kalehe territory. More than 5,000 persons are still missing, and about 1,200 houses have been damaged. In Nyamukubi, 70% of the local water infrastructures have been destroyed. Last year, in December, more than 120 people were killed after heavy rains caused severe flooding in the Congolese capital of Kinshasa.
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