South Asian and African Cities Most Vulnerable to Heat Risk: Report
The report finds that the tourist destinations and important business hubs like Hanoi in Vietnam and Cairo in Egypt are also among the top 50
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A new report by the University of Oxford found that India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ghana host the largest number of cities with highest heat risk scores, and more than 95% of the most at-risk cities are in South and Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report analysed 205 global cities to determine where people are most at risk from rising global temperatures and looked at key indicators of risk across hazard exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. It identified the city of Al Basrah in Iraq as the world’s most at-risk city.
Major Tourist and Business Hubs at Risk
Major tourist destinations and international business hubs, including Cairo in Egypt, Bangkok in Thailand, Hanoi in Vietnam, and Jaipur in India are also ranked in the top 50. The report said the concentration of high-risk cities in these regions reflects the combined burden of intense heat exposure, socio-economic vulnerability, and limited coping capacity.
Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam, lead author of the study and a DPhil researcher at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. said, “It isn’t just exposure to hot temperatures that matters for risk. In many major cities, particularly across Asia and Africa, extreme heat coincides with high vulnerability and limited coping capacity. This combination can substantially increase heat risk and, in some cases, have life-threatening consequences.”
The findings came at a time as scientists warn that climate change is making all heatwaves more intense and more likely. Extreme heat, the deadliest form of extreme weather, has killed about half a million people each year. More than a third of heat deaths can be now attributed to climate change.
Stronger Infrastructure and Adaptation Can Help Reduce Overall Risk
The report found that India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ghana host the largest number of cities with risk scores above the 90th percentile. While some cities experience intense heat exposure, stronger infrastructure, and adaptation measures can significantly reduce overall risk. Cities such as Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Jeddah, for example, rank highly for heat exposure but score lower on overall risk because of stronger coping capacity, including better access to cooling infrastructure, greener urban environments, and more affordable energy.
The report also stated that cities such as Karachi, Faisalabad, and Kaduna face severe heat risks despite more moderate exposure levels because poverty, demographic vulnerability and limited adaptive capacity amplify the impacts of extreme heat.
The research stated that as urban population continues to grow and the proportion of people living in cities is set to rise from half, currently, to two-thirds in 25 years’ time, adapting cities to heat is vital. While cutting out fossil fuel use is the only way to stop temperatures from rising further in the coming decades, there are adaptations that cities can make to protect their people.
The study pointed towards solutions such as increased tree planting in cities, heat health alerts, investment in electricity resilience, and passive cooling measures. Air-conditioning can be a double-edged sword, effective for those who can afford it, while pumping more heat back out into the surrounding streets and further increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the University of Oxford, said, “Air conditioning demand is increasing worldwide, but many cannot afford it. And if we over-rely on this energy-intensive form of cooling, we risk further global warming in a vicious cycle. In order to scale adaptation and thermal comfort for all, we must consider a nuanced approach to keeping people safe, sequencing solutions with passive cooling and low-energy technologies such as fans and coolers being the first step.”
The report also highlighted the cities that are already taking actions, for instance Ahmedabad in India and Karachi in Pakistan. These cities are implementing more heat safety measures aimed at protecting the vulnerable populations.