Cocoa yields are threatened by low pollination and rising temperatures, reducing output by up to 31%, according to the study
The $100 billion global chocolate industry relies heavily on the production of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.). This crop is cultivated by approximately five million smallholder farmers worldwide. A recent study, published in Nature, however, analysed cocoa production in Brazil, Ghana, and Indonesia and found that cocoa yields are constrained by a dual threat–inadequate pollination and increasing temperatures. This raises significant concerns for the future of chocolate supply and the livelihoods of cocoa farmers.
The pollination deficit in cocoa production
Cocoa trees depend primarily on insect pollination, particularly by small flies such as Ceratopogonidae midges. Despite this reliance, natural pollination levels remain alarmingly low. The study found that on average, only 16.7% of cocoa flowers receive effective natural pollination. The pollination rate varied significantly across regions. For example, Brazil recorded 12%, Ghana 27%, and Indonesia 11%. These figures indicate a substantial limitation in the natural pollination process, significantly reducing cocoa yields.
To quantify the impact of pollination shortages, researchers conducted hand-pollination experiments across the three countries. The results showed that hand-pollination increased cocoa yields by 20%. According to the study, this confirmed that natural pollination is insufficient to maximise production. This deficiency highlights a critical issue in cocoa agriculture, which is the need to enhance natural pollinator populations or adopt alternative methods to improve fertilisation rates.
Impact of rising temperatures on cocoa yields
The study also found a strong negative correlation between high temperatures and cocoa yield. Higher temperatures, particularly during the warm season, significantly reduced cocoa production. A temperature increase of 7°C was linked to a 22–31% decline in cocoa yield. This finding underscores the vulnerability of cocoa farming to climate change, as rising global temperatures may further exacerbate production challenges in the coming decades.
The role of soil quality and shade trees
Apart from pollination and climate, soil quality and plantation management were also identified as critical factors influencing cocoa yield. Larger and older cocoa trees were found to be more productive. The study suggested that preserving mature plantations, therefore, could enhance overall output. Additionally, plantations with ample leaf litter and well-maintained soil exhibited higher yields, likely due to improved soil fertility and moisture retention.
Shade trees also played a crucial role in mitigating the adverse effects of high temperatures, the study found. They helped regulate microclimates within cocoa plantations, reducing temperature extremes and providing habitat for pollinators. While shade trees improved yields by 3–9%, excessive shading could have counterproductive effects by increasing humidity and fostering fungal diseases.
Addressing the challenges
The study suggests several interventions to improve yields and secure the future of chocolate supply. This included enhancing pollination with the use of sustainable land management practices. Hand-pollination methods could also help boost yields, especially in areas where the pollinator population is exceptionally low, according to the study. Researchers also suggested integrating shade trees and climate-smart agriculture to shield the cocoa crops from rising temperatures. Agroforestry systems, which look at growing cocoa alongside other tree species, could also help protect the plantations against climate change, the study suggested. Cocoa productivity could also be increased by preserving organic matter to boost soil health. Optimising tree density by ensuring adequate spacing between cocoa trees could also maximise productivity, according to the researchers.
Without targeted interventions, global cocoa production may struggle to meet rising demand, posing risks to both the chocolate industry and the millions of farmers who rely on cocoa for their livelihoods, the study concluded.
About The Author
You may also like
Net zero’s carbon capture game: Study warns of BECCS risks
Football’s carbon footprint is the same as Austria’s annual emissions: Report
India among worst-hit by extreme weather, accounts for 10% of global deaths
India urges developed countries to fulfil climate finance pledges
1.9 billion people will face flooding by 2100: Study
