After a season of intense heat and uncontrollable forest fires, Uttarakhand is now witnessing extreme rainfall, already receiving double the normal average rainfall it sees
The past two months have seen extremely harsh weather in Uttarakhand. While June had record-breaking high temperatures, July has seen periods of exceptional monsoon rains that have caused landslides and flash floods.
The cumulative rainfall for Uttarakhand during the monsoon season, from June 1 to July 10, is 328.6 mm, compared to the normal of 295.4 mm, resulting in an 11% excess.
Data Source: IMD
Humidity at play
Humidity is the prime factor behind the increasing likelihood of heavier rainfall and even more dangerous heat waves. Both humidity and temperature are the twin pillars of climate change, according to the scientists.
Oceans, land, and atmosphere are all warming more quickly. The atmosphere can hold more moisture the warmer it becomes. As a result, more water is evaporating off the surface of the Earth. More droplets and heavier rainfall are thus produced by the air’s enhanced capacity to store water, often in a shorter amount of time and across a smaller region.
“Rainfall in Uttarakhand has been the result of the alignment of several Monsoon weather systems. There was Western disturbance over North Pakistan and its adjoining areas, a trough was extending from Central Pakistan to Uttarakhand and easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal were feeding moisture over Uttarakhand. All these resulted in intense clouding and subsequent heavy rainfall. However, the extreme heavy rainy spells are a result of climate change. There has been an increase in the moisture in the atmosphere due to the rise in global average temperature. This leads to formation of intense clouds, triggering heavy rains. With temperatures rising constantly, these spells of intense rain would be more common,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, meteorology and climate change, Skymet Weather.
There has been an increase in the average relative humidity across India because of the rapid rise in land and sea temperatures.
According to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the air can generally hold around 7% more moisture for every 1℃ temperature rise. Therefore, for relative humidity to stay the same under 1℃ of warming, the moisture content in the air also needs to increase by 7%. In theory, if there are no limiting factors, then this is the rate of expected increase.
Extreme heat in June
In the summer of 2024, nearly every district in Uttarakhand experienced extreme heat waves. From June 9 to June 20, the temperature in Dehradun exceeded 40°C for 11 days in a row. On eight days in May, however, the city’s temperature rose beyond 40°C.
On at least five occasions in May, the hill station of Mukteshwar recorded temperatures of nearly 30℃, the threshold of a heatwave in the hilly terrain. June has been the harshest for the town as it saw maximum temperature settling above 30℃ for 10 days. On June 15, Mukteshwar recorded a maximum temperature of 32.2℃, the highest in 10 years. This was close to the all-time high record of 32.5℃ which was observed on June 16, 2012.
Pantnagar also broke its 10-year record, with a day maximum of 41.8℃ on June 19. It has recorded 10 consecutive days of above 40℃ temperatures from June 11-20. From the very beginning of May, temperatures in the city settled in the late 30s, but the last 4 days saw mercury surpassing 40℃.
According to meteorologists, the steep rise in temperatures could be attributed to prolonged dry spells and less precipitation. Additionally, pre-monsoon rainfall activities remained almost absent and erratic.
“Waxing and waning of rains is normal but in the absence of these activities, climate change plays a key role. Prolonged dry periods during May and June led to rise in mercury. Global warming has been impacting the weather patterns making heatwaves intense and rain patterns erratic. May is the peak summer month and June brings in relief. However, 2024 has seen temperatures soaring in June, even settling beyond 40℃ for days together. Impact of receding El Nino has further worsened the situation, which aided further warming. This shows how global warming is impacting the weather. If global average temperatures continue to rise, this would become more frequent as well as intense,” said Palawat.
Extreme rainfall in July
June was followed by July and the Himalayan state has already witnessed double the normal average rainfall it receives. From July 1-10, Uttarakhand has recorded 239.1 mm of rain in comparison to its normal average of 118.6 mm. With this, the state has a rain surplus of 102%.
The state’s 13 districts are currently seeing surplus rainfall in July, which is pulling the Himalayan state away from its June deficit and towards surplus rainfall. The average monthly precipitation in Uttarakhand is 417.8 mm.
Between July 1 and 9, the Bageshwar district had the greatest rainfall, with 357.2 mm compared to a normal of 77.7 mm. This resulted in a 360% rain surplus. Subsequently, the districts of Udham Singh Nagar and Champawat reported rainfall surpluses of 280% and 272%, respectively, for the same time frame.
District-wise rainfall recorded from July 1 to July 10. Data Source: IMD
Raging forest Fires
In Uttarakhand, the peak fire season typically begins in late March and lasts around 11 weeks. There were 247 VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) fire alerts reported between 1st of January 2024 and 3rd of June 2024 considering high confidence alerts only. This is normal compared to previous years going back to 2012.
“There is a direct relation between extreme heat and forest fires. While we do not deny the fact that forest fires are often man-made, what we saw this year gave us a clear picture of how rising temperatures will exacerbate the situation. Extended dry period paved the way for rise in temperature as well as accumulation of dry leaves. All these factors led to faster dissemination of fire, covering larger areas and resulting in tree cover loss. Putting measures in places well in time can help in saving the forest fires but definitely we need to curb greenhouse gas emissions,” said Rajnish Ranjan, a disaster management expert.
According to the data from Global Forest Watch, Nainital had the highest rate of tree cover loss from 2001 to 2023 due to fires with an average of 12 ha lost per year.
From 2001 to 2023, Uttarakhand lost 1.18 kilohectare (kha) of tree cover from fires and 19.5 kha from all other drivers of tree cover loss. The year with the most tree cover loss due to fires during this period was 2009 with 217 ha lost — 23% of all tree cover loss for that year.
The trend of rising temperatures in Uttarakhand is making forest fire incidents worse. Higher elevation locations are experiencing weather and climatic extremes due to human-caused climate change, and numerous recent studies have documented the rising prevalence of elevation-dependent warming (EDW). EDW influences the Himalayan rivers and glaciers (e.g., changes in the glacial mass balance, river discharge, snowfall, etc.) — which is the only water source for the hilly region’s livelihood.
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