Unless humans limit global warming by rapidly cutting the emission of greenhouse gasses, weather records will continue to break frequently, scientists say
Monday was the planet’s hottest day on record, said the provisional satellite data published by Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme.
The data said the global average temperature on 22 July was 17.15°C, around 0.06°C hotter than the day before. The temperature had previously been broken in July 2023. Prior to that, the record of 16.92°C was set in August 2016.
Dr Karsten Haustein, climate scientist, Leipzig University, said “While daily temperature records should be taken with a grain of salt, this past Monday might have set a new global record for warmest absolute global average temperature ever (by that I mean going back tens of thousands of years). The record set early July last year, has likely been exceeded by a small margin (0.02-0.07°C) based on ERA5 reanalysis and GFS analysis data. It is remarkable insofar as we have transitioned well into ‘Neutral’ ENSO territory, as opposed to El Niño conditions that helped boost global temperatures last summer.”
As per the Working Group 1 Technical Summary, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures during the last decade were hotter than the previous warm period, around 6,500 years ago. The next most recent warm period was about 1,25,000 years ago when the temperature range was 0.5°C-1.5°C hotter than temperatures before humans began warming the planet.
This means the last time the planet consistently reached temperatures seen this month was about 1,25,000 years ago, during the Eemian period, when the ancestor of modern humans, homo erectus, still walked the Earth. Sea levels were likely about 8 metres higher at the time then they are today, and hippos lived as far north as the British Isles.
No relief from heat
The new record comes after the previous day had also, narrowly, recorded an all-time high temperature.
Over 200 sites in Japan experienced record-breaking heat on July 21, with numerous cities reporting highs over 37°C. Record highs were reached in China and Indonesia, where the intense heat forced businesses to halt operations. India and Pakistan witnessed heat waves exceeding 40°C and high humidity levels reaching up to 82%. These conditions created life-threatening situations with heat indexes exceeding 55°C. Thousands of cases of heatstroke have been reported in India so far this year, and at least 110 heat-related deaths have been reported—a figure that is probably understated.
Gulf nations saw extremely high heat indexes—above 60°C. Temperatures reached 42°C in Iran and 45°C in Dubai, while heat indexes – factoring in humidity – reached 61°C in Abu Dhabi. Nighttime temperatures remained above 30°C in several regions, including in Egypt, where increased electricity demand led to temporary blackouts during the hot nights. Record-breaking nighttime temperatures have severe consequences to human health, as hot nights prevent recovery from heat and increase the risk of physical and mental health problems. 
July 21 and 22 around the world: Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI) quantified the local influence of climate change on daily temperatures across the globe. Using a peer-reviewed scientific methodology, the index shows how much human-induced climate change shifted the odds of daily temperatures that people experienced locally. For example, a CSI level 3, 4 and 5 above (bright and dark red) indicates that local temperatures were at least 3 times more likely because of climate change between July 21 and 22.
In many regions of Europe, the temperature surpassed 45°C, and in Morocco and Algeria, it was almost 50°C. Due to heat, wildfires, and strain on power networks, red alerts were issued for several cities in southern and eastern Europe. Fires fuelled by record heat occurred in other areas. Record wildfires in the Pantanal, the largest wetland in the world that is located between Bolivia, Paraguay, and Brazil, have burned over 77,000 square kilometres of land so far in 2024—twice as much as the previous record—continuing to decimate the species. In South Africa, the winter heatwave contributed to a bushfire in the east that killed 6 firefighters. There’s no end to how rising heat is leaving its mark on humans.
Climate change to blame
The temperature rise of recent decades is not a surprise to climate scientists: it is exactly what they projected would happen if fossil fuels continued to be burnt at an increasing rate. For example, a 1981 study introduced a climate model that accurately projected how temperatures would rise over the following 40 years, if there was a fast growth in fossil fuel use – as there was: 
Thick line shows projected temperatures in a scenario with fast growth in emissions; coloured lines shows actual temperature data
Major fossil fuel companies, including Exxon, Shell, BP, Total, and Chevron, are facing legal action aimed at holding them accountable for the costs of climate change and for allegedly misleading consumers about their role in causing it.
As confirmed again in the report by the IPCC, human activity is responsible for all of the warming that has been experienced since the mid-19th Century:
“The likely range of human-induced change in global surface temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a central estimate of 1.07°C, encompassing the best estimate of observed warming for that period, which is 1.06°C with a very likely range of [0.88°C to 1.21°C], while the likely range of the change attributable to natural forcing is only –0.1°C to +0.1°C.” the report said.
The IPCC also made clear that fossil fuel use is the main factor driving global warming: “In 2019, around 79% of global GHG emissions came from energy, industry, transport and buildings, and 22% came from agriculture, forestry and other land use. CO2 emissions reductions from efficiency measures are dwarfed by rising emissions in multiple sectors,” the report added.
Dr Joyce Kimutai, climate scientist, Imperial College London, said, “This is exactly what climate science told us would happen if the world continued burning coal, oil and gas. And it will continue getting hotter until we stop burning fossil fuels and reach net zero emissions. As impacts escalate, urgent need is required to support vulnerable countries to adapt and address inevitable losses and damages.”
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