Rising Global Energy Demand Fuel Security Threats: WEO Report

The report finds that power lines proved particularly vulnerable, with transmission and distribution grid damages

Countries around the globe are facing growing energy security threats and long-term threats across the range of fuels and technologies. This has placed energy at the heart of geopolitical tensions and elevated it as a core issue of economic and national security, said the World Energy Output Report, 2025 by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The new report found that disruptions to critical energy infrastructure in 2023 affected more than 200 million households around the world. Power lines proved particularly vulnerable, with transmission and distribution grid damages accounting for about 85% of incidents.

The report underscored the need for governments to pursue greater diversification of supplies and increased cooperation with one another to help navigate the uncertainties and turbulence ahead.

The three scenarios

The IEA, in its report, mapped out three scenarios, none of which are forecasts. Two of these set starting conditions and then examine where they lead – the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). A third, the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, maps out a pathway to achieve specific energy and climate-related goals. In the central scenario (STEPS), oil and coal demand will peak by or before 2030. 

But the IEA’s updated CPS tells a different story, which reflects what happens if the world sticks to the policies already in place. According to the report, oil demand under these existing measures will not plateau in 2030, but instead climb steadily to 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, around 13% higher than 2024 consumption. These “existing policies” include renewables mandates, fossil fuel extraction laws, and vehicle and construction emission standards.

The update comes amid criticism from U.S. officials who have accused the Paris-based agency of politicising energy by suggesting that fossil fuel demand could soon peak. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed the idea of “peak oil demand” as nonsensical. The new scenario, therefore, signals an effort to show how divergent outcomes depend on whether governments stay the course or step up ambition.

“That CPS scenario is not representative of reality. It’s not even representative of the market realities around renewables acceleration right now around the world. That scenario is entirely politically motivated, and the Trump administration, unfortunately, has been setting back policy in the United States and trying to undermine policy around the world. But let’s look at the factual scenarios here in the IEA report, and what you see is in any of the scenarios that actually help us limit dangerous climate change, which is what people around the world need, any of those scenarios, they’re saying, you don’t need huge new infrastructure in gas, oil, or coal. You don’t need new coal mines,” said Rachel Cleetus, Policy Director at Union of Concerned Scientists.

Among the many trends common to all the scenarios in this year’s WEO is the world’s growing need for energy services over the coming decades – with demand rising for mobility; for heating, cooling, lighting, and other household and industrial uses; and increasingly for data and AI-related services. In all scenarios, even one where global climate action grounds to a halt (CPS), renewables grow faster than any other major energy source. 

Still scope to meet climate goals? 

The report showed that 1.5°C of warming will be surpassed in any scenario, including those with very rapid emissions reductions. The energy sector will need to prepare for the security risks brought by higher temperatures, but there is still scope to avoid the worst climate outcomes. The updated scenario in which the world reaches net zero emissions by mid-century brings temperatures back below 1.5° C in the long term. However, the way these scenarios have been put forth don’t give the full picture, say experts. “This report does not take into account the cost of climate change. So when we’re talking about scenarios that blow past 1.5, 2, 2.5, even getting to 2.9, we’re talking about trillions of dollars of damages around the world. Those costs are not accounted for in these scenarios,” said Cleetus. 

Rising Demand from Emerging Economies

In emerging economies led by India and Southeast Asia, energy demand increased by 2.6% per year. This region, joined by countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, is going to take the baton from China, which accounted for half of global oil and gas demand growth and 60% of electricity demand growth since 2010, although no country or group of countries comes close to replicating China’s energy-intensive rise, the report stated.

Additionally, traditional energy risks affecting the security of oil and gas supply are now accompanied by vulnerabilities in other areas, most visibly in supply chains for critical minerals due to high levels of market concentration.

Global gas demand is only set to rise by 10% from current levels, so questions still linger about where new LNG export capacity will go. In all scenarios, even one where global climate action grounds to a halt in CPS, renewables grow faster than any other major energy source. The report said that renewables are now so competitive that their growth is locked in. 

“More than $10 trillion has been invested in clean energy since 2014, and oil demand is on track to peak before 2030 in the IEA’s main scenario. The electricity age is well under way,” said Laurence Tubiana, CEO, European Climate Foundation. “The choice now is between accelerating or paying later to undo the damage: every tonne of carbon we avoid today saves far greater costs tomorrow. We can keep looking backwards and burying our heads in the sand – or look forward, clear-eyed, to the future we must build to avoid catastrophe.”

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