Air Pollution is Changing the Lightning Patterns in India, Study Finds

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Research finds that air pollution can intensify as well as suppress lightning, which will further complicate efforts to forecast and manage it

Air pollution in India is altering lightning patterns. A study titled “Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Their Role in Modulating Lightning Activity: Evidence From Extreme Events Over India” has found that tiny particles in the air, called aerosols, can influence clouds and lightning during extreme weather events in west‐central and northeast regions of India.

Pollution Can Both Increase and Decrease Lightning

According to the research, lightning is also one of the common hazards in India accounting for about 40% of all natural disaster-related deaths. Air pollution can both increase and decrease lightning activity, depending on how high the pollution levels are and the local weather conditions.

The study identified two phases: the boost, where rising pollution seeds clouds, and the delay, where clouds grow taller and develop ice and graupel. The collision of these particles generates the electrical charge that powers lightning. The crash phase occurs when pollution exceeds a threshold (beyond 7,500 particles per cubic centimetre), choking the air and weakening storm updrafts, which stops the electrification process.

High Pollution Doesn’t Always Mean More Lightning

“Northern India experiences very high pollution levels during the winter months, yet this does not translate into increased thunderstorms or lightning activity, ” said Subhojit Ghoshal Chowdhury, Researcher at Centre for Atmospheric Science at IIT Delhi and the author of this report, CarbonCopy. “This is because the local meteorological conditions in winter such as lower surface temperatures, a shallow planetary boundary layer, and a more stable atmosphere suppress deep convection, which is necessary for lightning.”

The researchers said that because of the stronger surface heating and increased atmospheric instability. All of these phenomena favour more intense convective storms, which will likely increase in lightning activity, and recent studies project higher lightning flash rates over the Indian subcontinent in the future.

Early Warnings is the Key to Reduce the Risk

The author of the research paper pointed out that current weather prediction models often fail to account for these complex aerosol interactions, leading to inaccurate forecasts for severe storms. As lightning is a highly localised and small-scale phenomenon, it gets difficult to predict in advance.

Chowdhury added, “Strengthening lightning early warning systems by combining meteorological forecasting with emerging scientific insights should be a priority for reducing fatalities and enhancing climate resilience in India.”