Trump to take office: What to expect from the US on climate issues

Climate-related actions in the first weeks of the new Trump administration can include slowing the Inflation Reduction Act, considerations in opening up new oil and gas projects, consequences of pulling out of the Paris Agreement, and more

On Monday, January 20, Donald J. Trump will be sworn in for a second time as the 47th president of the United States. While Trump continues to deny the reality of climate change, embraces fossil fuels, and critiques many of the large-scale climate solutions implemented under President Biden, it is increasingly apparent to many Americans that widespread economic, social, and environmental woes are ultimately tied to a dangerously heating planet. Trump enters the White House as catastrophic fires continue to burn in Southern California.

Trump’s nominees for cabinet positions are overall very closely aligned to the fossil fuel industry — one Democratic senator even called them “a cartel” — and share various degrees of climate denial. They are also the richest presidential cabinet ever assembled, including 11 billionaires or billionaire adjacent members. 

While Trump’s campaign trail promises could result in an additional 4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere — the equivalent of the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan, or the combined annual total of the world’s 140 lowest-emitting countries, according to Carbon Brief, there is also strong momentum for a countervailing force. 

Climate action during Biden administration 

Solar and wind energy surpassed coal in the US in 2024, thanks in part to large tax credits implemented by the Biden administration. The US now ranks third in the world for solar panel manufacturing.

Billions of dollars of climate-related grants from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) ($74 billion) have funded new battery and electric car makers, solar and wind energy producers, mineral and transmission projects and more. Around 75% of the spending has been in Republican-led districts, according to Atlas Public Policy, which tracks IRA announcements. The tax credits available are unlimited and could potentially surpass $1 trillion in climate spending, though the Trump Administration is expected to slow that down. 

Trump administration to thwart IRA funding 

Trump has promised to roll back major portions of Biden’s signature climate laws. A repeal of major provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) would need the support of Congress, where even Republican members may balk as their districts have benefited from the massive funding opportunities. Trump may be able to hold back unspent IRA funds, but the Biden administration has been sending out funds rapidly over the past few months. 

However, a repeal of climate provisions from the IRA would cost American businesses and taxpayers, cost jobs, and increase pollution. Biden’s climate policies established many different climate funding flows, the majority of which has been allocated. But some $20 billion in grant funding remains vulnerable to cancellation. The EPA reports that it has spent 93% of available grant funds on a myriad of climate and climate justice projects.

The Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University found that US retreat on clean energy could give up to $80 billion in new supply chain opportunities to countries outside the US, while costing US companies up to $50 billion in lost export revenue.

According to Climate Power, since 2022, the US has created 4,06,007 new clean energy jobs with $422 billion in investments on 751 new clean energy projects.

“Cancelled green projects in the United States mean that other countries can invest and seize the investment opportunity to meet demand for clean technologies. China will be happy to wave in the rearview mirror of one of its world-leading EVs, as US manufacturers hobble on,” said Tim Sahay, co-director of the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab, Johns Hopkins University. 

Boosting oil and gas production, reversal of new offshore drilling ban

The US hit new oil production highs under the Biden administration and it is already the largest oil and gas producer globally. In the final weeks of his presidency, Biden announced a ban on future offshore oil and gas drilling along a large part of US coastal waters, which Trump said he’d revoke on his first day in office. 

Trump has taken on the phrase “energy dominance” and has promised an  executive order outlining what that may mean, including possibly declaring an “energy emergency” meant to open up more areas to oil and gas exploration. He may also establish a new national energy council, replacing the Office of Domestic Climate Policy.

Reverse LNG export license freeze 

Trump and his energy secretary nominee, Chris Wright, who made billions in the fracking industry, want to see more LNG exports and have committed to reversing a freeze on new LNG export licenses. According to media accounts, an executive order on LNG is likely, but may be more rhetorical — praising gas — without reversing the policy right away as there may be legal ramifications.

The Biden administration released a last minute report showing that increased gas exports may harm Americans and may not be in the national interest. The comment period on that report remains open and thousands of people have submitted comments on the harms of LNG infrastructure — comments that the incoming administration is obliged to review.

Regardless of whether Trump lifts the ban, US LNG export capacity is expected to double from 2024 to 2028, based on projects already under construction

Electric vehicle incentives

While Trump and Republican allies have called consumer tax credits for electric vehicles wasteful and vowed to reverse the Biden-era program and end other incentives for domestic electric vehicle manufacturing, charging infrastructure and emissions regulations, the auto industry itself is cautioning Trump to keep these incentives. EV rollbacks could be part of the executive actions that Trump promised on his first day in office. 

Paris pullout 

It is widely expected that Trump will come through on his campaign pledge to again withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. Although Project 2025 also called for Trump to entirely remove the US from the overarching framework, the UNFCCC, it is unclear if that will be one of the executive orders. It will take a year for the withdrawal to take effect. 

The United States, under President Trump, remains the only nation in the world that has ever withdrawn from the agreement that has 194 other Parties – underscoring the importance of an accord where every nation in the world gets a seat at the table. 

Tariffs & trade consideration

While the Biden Administration implemented significant targeted tariffs against Chinese imports, largely in clean energy sectors, intended to boost domestic green manufacturing, Trump has threatened China with even higher tariffs and has used tariffs as a blunt bargaining chip with Europe, Canada, Mexico and even Denmark in recent weeks. It’s difficult to predict where Trump trade policy might lead. 

Bloomberg analysis suggested that Trump’s advisors may in fact take a more gradual approach to raising tariffs throughout 2025, including against China. There is evidence that tariffs meant to bolster domestic jobs and industries can backfire and slow adoption of clean energy, as occurred with the demise of the formerly leading US solar industry.

Offshore and possible general wind power ban

The Biden administration has approved 11 utility scale offshore wind projects, several of which are currently being built. In 2023, wind farms accounted for 22% of the electricity generated in Texas and 59% of the power produced in Iowa, according to the New York Times, in other words major sources of electricity in large states. 

The Trump administration plans to halt the construction of new offshore wind farms, and possibly on-shore wind farms as well, both of which are major US industries powering significant portions of the grid.

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A team of handpicked and dedicated writers committed to fact check each climate-related statement. Go to the roots and intent of each policy implemented, internationally and at home to help you understand climate better

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